Limitations of Using CBO’s Published Baseline Projections. We calibrate a commercial macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy and a proprietary microsimulation model of individual income tax returns to CBO’s baseline projections. The challenges faced in calibrating the two models differ. However, for both models, a common factor complicates our work. CBO publishes only a small subset of the economic and budgetary variables making up its baseline projections (see Table 1). This limits the number of variables available as guides in adjusting the two models to reflect CBO’s current-law assumptions.
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