Тузувчи : Файзуллаева Н

Calibrating Macroeconomic and Microsimulation Models to CBO’s Baseline Projections

Calibration to CBO’s baseline projections begins with the macroeconomic model. We first calibrate the Global Insight model to CBO’s published economic projections and NIPA Federal revenue and spending projections. We refer to output from the calibrated GI model as the final CBO-like forecast. The final CBO-like baseline forecast not only replicates the published details of CBO’s current-law baseline but also includes projections of key macroeconomic and income variables excluded from them.38

We then calibrate the microsimulation model to CBO’s baseline projec­tions. In doing so, we use data from the SOI and the Census Bureau as well as economic variables from the final CBO-like forecast. Those economic vari­ables include nominal GDP, corporate profits, the consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers, the components of NIPA taxable personal income, NIPA transfer payments to persons (Federal as well as State and local), and NIPA State and local tax revenues. The calibrated microsimulation model that results approximates CBO’s baseline projections of key economic and income variables and individual income tax revenues.