Тузувчи : Файзуллаева Н

Figure 2: Historical Annual and Average Multiple of world real GDP growth to world population growth 5, 10, 20 and 30 years

Historical Annual and Average Multiple (5 years)


Historical Annual and Average Multiple (10 years)

Historical Annual and Average Multiple (20 years)

Historical Annual and Average Multiple (30 years)

Source: World Bank (real GDP growth 2000 US$) and United Nations Population division (population growth)

What is most interesting about the above charts is noting that the OECD and IMF drivers for GDP growth (including working age population, labour force participation, education, technological advancements, capital intensity, productivity, savings rate, product market liberalisation etc) have changed considerably over the last 50 years and yet there has been absolutely no change in the Historical Average Multiple of around 2.0 times.  Given GDP’s main driver is private consumption and government spending (coming from taxes), which relies on population, the consistent Historical Average Multiple, independent of timeframe, appears reasonable.  The Historical Average Multiple is not analysed on a country by country basis given the effects of migration and trade.  This consistent linear relationship suggests that government policies or structural changes that focus on growing GDP make little impact on GDP growth.  For instance lower taxes would increase the private consumption portion of GDP growth but reduce the government spending portion of GDP growth.