Topic risk analysis methods

TOPIC 6. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS

 

Currently the most common are the following methods of risk analysis:

• statistical;

• expert evaluation;

• analytical;

* assessment of financial stability and solvency;

• assessment of the appropriateness of costs;

* analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;

* method of using analogues;

• combined method.

Consider some of the main ones.

The statistical method consists in studying the statistics of losses and profits that took place at a given or similar enterprise, in order to determine the probability of an event, to establish the magnitude of the risk. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result. For example, the probability of successful promotion of a new product on the market during the year is 3/4, and failure-1/4. The magnitude, or degree, of risk is measured by two indicators: the average expected value and the variability (variability) of the possible outcome.

Recently, the method of statistical tests-the Monte Carlo method - has become popular. Its advantage is the ability to analyze and evaluate different" scenarios " of the project and take into account different risk factors in the same approach Different types of projects have different vulnerability to risks, which is found in the simulation. The disadvantage of this method is that it uses probabilistic characteristics for estimates and conclusions, which is not very convenient for direct practical application and does not satisfy project managers. However, despite these shortcomings, this method makes it possible to identify the risk associated with those projects for which the decision will not change.

Method of expert assessments. This method differs from the statistical method only by collecting information to build a risk curve.

This method involves the collection and examination of estimates made by various specialists (the enterprise or external experts) regarding the likelihood of different levels of losses. Estimates are based on accounting for all financial risk factors, as well as statistical data. Implementation of the method of expert assessments is significantly complicated if the number of evaluation indicators is small.

The variant and probable nature of many project processes increases the role of expert assessments in determining economic and financial indicators. Such assessments are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice.

During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for the calculation are not Directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts.

Increasing risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. A set of initial indicators, often competing with each other, involves the use of expert assessments for the construction of the quality criterion of the project. Therefore, the system of investment evaluation in the current conditions becomes "human-algorithmic" by necessity, and the role of a human expert is decisive.

Expert evaluation is the opinion of experts on a certain issue identified by a special technique. Expert assessment is necessary to make a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTEO. But already in the feasibility study the number of expert assessments should be minimal.

Step-by-step risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually in each project there are stages: preparatory (performance of all complex of works necessary for the beginning of realization of the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and constructions, purchase and installation of the equipment); functioning (a conclusion of the project on full capacity and receiving profit). All tests are performed twice-at the time of drafting and after identifying the most dangerous elements of the project.

Expert assessments are subject to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. First, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts on any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are carried out modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which eliminates unacceptable differences in experts ' estimates of the probability of occurrence of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Second, to assess the consistency of experts ' opinions on the whole set of risks, the pair of experts whose opinions differ most strongly is identified. For calculations, the variance estimates are summed modulo, and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of the division should not exceed 25. If there are contradictions between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not fulfilled), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in our calculations.

A separate problem is the justification and assessment of priorities. The essence of it is the need to exempt experts who give an assessment of the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to assess the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project.

To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or combination of stages are first calculated:

- functionings,

- financial-economic,

- technological,

- social and environmental.

=A kind of expert method is the Delphi method. It is characterized by the anonymity and controlled feedback. The anonymity of the members of the Commission is ensured by their physical separation, which prevents them from discussing the answers to the questions posed. The purpose of this division is to avoid the "traps" of group decision-making, the dominance of the leader's opinion. After processing the result through managed feedback, the generalized result is reported to each member of the Commission. The main purpose of such an action is to make it possible to get acquainted with the assessments of other members of the Commission, without being pressured because of the knowledge of who specifically gave a particular assessment. The evaluation can then be repeated.

In the expert assessment of entrepreneurial risk, great attention should be paid to the selection of experts, since it is on the correctness of their assessments that the decision to choose a particular entrepreneurial project depends.

Another important method of risk research is the modeling of the choice problem with the help of the "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of options for decisions that can be taken. On branches of "tree" correlate subjective and objective estimates of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods of calculating probabilities, evaluate each path and then choose the less risky.

However, this method is very time-consuming. In addition, the "tree" takes into account only those actions that the entrepreneur intends to make, and only those outcomes that from his point of view can take place. At the same time, the influence of the external environment on the activities of the entrepreneurial firm is not taken into account at all, and the entrepreneur can not always foresee the actions of partners and competitors.

Analytical method. The analytical method of constructing the risk curve is the most complex, since the underlying elements of game theory are available only to very narrow specialists. The most commonly used subspecies of the analytical method is the sensitivity analysis of the model.

 

It consists of the following steps:

- selection of the key indicator, relative to which the sensitivity assessment is made (internal rate of return, net present income, etc.);

- selection of factors (inflation rate, state of the economy, etc.);

- calculation of key indicator values at different stages of the project (purchase of raw materials, production, sales, transportation, capital construction, etc.).

The sequences of expenses and receipts of financial resources formed in this way make it possible to determine the cash flows for each moment (or period of time), i.e. to determine the performance indicators. The diagrams reflecting dependence of the chosen resultant indicators on size of initial parameters are constructed. Comparing among themselves the received diagrams, it is possible to define so-called key indicators, to the greatest extent influencing an estimation of profitability of the project. Sensitivity analysis also has serious drawbacks: it is not comprehensive and does not specify the likelihood of alternative projects.

The problem of inflation risk is one of the main problems and the choice of investment options. To reduce risk, various methods are used to improve the reliability of investment results: sensitivity analysis, mathematical statistics, economic and mathematical modeling.