‘This is a wonderful book that should be on the desk of every architect and planner. It shows how

So can scenario planning be used as a means of keeping options open?
Not as such, because it is not designed for creating conditions that expand future options. Theoretically, 
of course, if aimed at sustainability goals, scenario planning could contribute to healthier policies.
In the past, we have relied on alternative technologies materializing, such as means to store nuclear 
power, instead of creating the infrastructure to make low-risk energy alternatives work better in a 
variety
of possible scenarios. Scenario processes geared towards sustainability could arguably test 
the relative viability of various means of diversification or expanding options. But instead, scenarios 
have tended to be used to scare people away from certain pathways – whether such studies advocate 
green or industrial solutions (again, this resonates the idea that people are motivated by fear or greed) 
[Chapter 1]. A sustainability approach, focused on creating positive environments, would 
not
put 
most of its resources into doomsday scenarios. Instead of comparing end-points of different energy 
systems, a positive approach would expand social, environmental and economic opportunities [Box 
45]. That is, policy analysts and strategic planners would apply scenarios to assist in looking at ‘what 
could be’, not just what may occur. 
Figure 14 Scenario and least cost planning
21
Scenario planning anticipates/predicts ends that will result from alternatives (means, politics, actions, investments).
The present
End point 1
End point 2
End point 3
End point 4
End point 5
Least cost planning maps and compares alternatives (means, politics, actions, investments) to achieve a specific 
desired end or goal. Where a specific goal is clear, least cost planning can be used to select the best route to get 
there, but it is less suited to sustainability where the goal is to expand options.
Vision 
The present