The structure of the global catastrophe

Comparative force of different dangerous technologies

Further, we can make the list of "force" of destructive influence of technologies in which each following technology gives больший rate of threats and eclipses the threats created at the previous stage. The time factor specifies here in duration of possible process of extinction (instead of time before technology maturing).

1. Exhaustion of resources - decades or centuries.

2. Scale nuclear war with application of cobalt bombs - with the account slow the subsequent extinction - years and decades.

3. Biotechnologies - years or tens years.

4. Nanorobotы - from several days till several years.

5. An artificial intellect - from hours till several years

6. Explosion on the accelerator - with a velocity of light.

Accordingly, scenarios of global catastrophe will be to pass about much more probability from the first positions of this list to the last, in other words, if in the middle of process of exhaustion of resources multifactorial biological war process of exhaustion of resources will be so slow in comparison with it suddenly begins, that it can to be taken into consideration. Thus presence of each more advanced technology will allow to minimise consequences of catastrophe from weaker. For example, the developed biotechnologies will help to extract resources and to clear the world of radioactive contamination. Nanorobotы can protect from any biological dangers.

Sequence of occurrence of various technologies in time

The list of "force" of technologies resulted above as a whole is similar on expected временнýю sequence of occurrence of technologies in a reality as we can expect, that on a progress course there will be more and more strong and potentially destructive technologies of technology, but actually not necessarily corresponds to this sequence.

The sequence of occurrence of various technologies in time is the major factor in definition of what waits for us the future. Though thanks to NBIC-convergence successes in one technology affect others, for us the moment of maturing of technology is that moment when with its help begins possible to create global risk. And even the small advancing here can play crucial importance. In general, any technology allows to create a board and a sword. On time, the board usually lags behind, though, finally, it can appear more strongly a sword. Besides, stronger technology creates a board from weaker.

Usually the following sequence of maturing of technologies is expected: bio - nano - AI. The strong artificial intellect is original "joker" who can arise and tomorrow, and in ten years, and through 50 or in general never. Biotechnologies develop is forward enough according to the «Moore's law», and we as a whole can predict time when they will ripen to that point where it will be possible to make any viruses anywhere and somehow cheaply. It will be exact probably in 10-30 years if a certain catastrophe does not interrupt development of these technologies. Dangerous physical experiment can occur almost instantly and irrespective of other technologies - while there is a high level of technologies in general. Coming to power of powerful AI considerably will reduce probability of such event (but even AI can put certain experiments).

Nanotechnologyи are in much more rudimentary form, than biotechnology and even technology of AI. The first dangerous experiments with biotechnologies were in 1970th years (a cancer intestinal stick), and to the nearest dangerous nanotechnologyческих experiments - as early as 10 years at least if there will be no technological break. That is nanotechnologyи lag behind biotechnologies almost for 50 years. Sudden break can occur or from AI - he will think up as easily and quickly to create nanotechnologyи either from biotechnologies - or on a way of creation of synthetic organisms.

Comparison of various technological risks

For each supertechnology it is possible to enter the factor of danger Y=a*b which reflects both probability of occurrence of this technology (a), and probability of its ill-intentioned application (b).

For example, nuclear technologies already exist (a=1), but the control over their considerable applications (full-scale war or a superbomb) is high enough, therefore the second size of product is small. For biotechnologies it is high both probability of their development, and probability of their ill-intentioned application. For AI these sizes are unknown to us. For nanotechnologyй too it is unknown probability of their creation (however it is not visible basic difficulties), and the probability of their ill-intentioned application is similar to probability for the biological weapon.

Besides, it is possible to add the factor of speed of development of technology which shows, how much it is close on time. Linear multiplication here is not quite correct, as does not consider that fact, that the late technology completely is cancelled by others, and also nonlinear character of progress of each technology (at least an exhibitor). The further from us technology, the it is more safe, as chance that we will find a way safe image there is more to operate progress and application of its fruits.

Generalising, it is possible to draw a conclusion, that biotechnologies receive the highest points on this scale - these technologies are for certain possible, their harmful application is almost inevitable and on time they are rather close to us.

Nanotechnologyи receive unexpectedly low level of threat. It is not known, whether they are possible, thus they can appear quite safe and till the moment of their natural maturing more very many time. If they ripen unnaturally, - thanks to progress in creation of AI or biotechnologies, - they appear in a shade of force of these technologies: in a shade of threats from biotechnologies which by that moment they can create, and in a shade of abilities of AI to the control which can check all casual leaks nanotechnologyй.

AI, being «a bilaterial joker», can and prevent any other risks, and is easy ruin mankind. The moment of occurrence of AI is the moment полифуркацAI - during this moment to it the purposes which will change then can be set it impossible. Slow and more later occurrence AI is connected with possible smooth development of the state into the huge all-supervising computer. Faster and early occurrence, more likely, is connected with the sudden invention in not which laboratory of the car capable to self-improvement, and нацеливанием it on power capture on the Earth. In this case she, more likely, will create certain essentially new structures of communication and management, and its distribution will be explosive and revolutionary. However the later people will create AI, the it is more chance, that they will understand how correctly to program it that it actually brought the blessing to people. However, on the other hand, the later it will arise, the more possibly, that it will be made by certain "hacker" as complexity of a problem becomes simpler every year. E.Yudkowsky (in article in the appendix to this book) metaphorically so expresses this thought: Moore's Law concerning AI says, that every year IQ human-designer, necessary for AI creation, falls on one unit.

The basic fork, in my opinion, is, whether it will be possible to create powerful AI before will work joint effect «добивания», caused by system crisis, biotechnologies, nuclear war and other factors. Or all these events so will weaken mankind, that almost all scientists-experts on AI will be lost, or become refugees, and works in this area will rise. Weaken researches simple destruction of the Internet which will reduce an information exchange and explosive growth of technologies can even. This fork concerns events which I named «global risks of the third sort».

Than development of technologies is fast accelerated, the more speeds of an exchange, the become all processes in a human civilisation faster, including as that all virtual simulations of a reality faster work. It means, that for a year of objective time the civilisation can pass hundreds and thousand years of "subjective" time if to consider on its internal hours. Owing to it, probabilities of any internal risks increase, and even the most improbable events of internal character can have time to occur. Therefore for the external observer the civilisation becomes the extremely unstable. But acceleration of internal time does a civilisation much more independent of external risks - from the point of view of the internal observer.

The question in, whether is mankind the external or internal observer of processes of acceleration. Definitely, considerable part of people does not participate in world processes - third of people in the world never used phone. Nevertheless, they can in an equal measure with other people suffer, if something goes not so. However now people from «gold billion» as a whole keeps up with progress. But in the future the situation when progress will come off and these people is possible. Probably, the group of leading scientists will be involved in it, and can, it will depend completely on computers. Natural human inertia is considered a good safety lock from rates of progress. It is difficult to force to change people computers more often, than time in some years (though Japanese are accustomed to change cellular telephones and clothes each three months), the truth economic pressure is very great and creates social pressure - for example, an image of new, even more abrupt phone. However in case of the armed opposition, race of arms is limited by nothing on rate - wins faster.

The purposes of creation of the weapon of the Doomsday

The dangerous factor of global catastrophe can arise or is casual, or to be created intentionally. (Also the combination of these two moments however is possible: of a random factor can take advantage intentionally, for example, having hidden approach of a dangerous asteroid, or on the contrary, something planned as game with low risk of global catastrophe, leaves from under the control.)

Often in discussions there is an opinion, that nobody will want to realise a certain devil plan and consequently it is possible not to consider it. It is incorrect. First, here we will apply the statistical approach - sooner or later the necessary conditions will develop. Secondly, on the Earth really there are groups of people and separate humans who want "doomsday". However as a whole it does not concern Islamic terrorists because they wish to create World Халифат, instead of radioactive desert. (But they can be ready to risk by a principle «all or anything», for example, having created «the Doomsday Machine» and to threaten to apply it if all countries of the world simultaneously do not accept Islam. But if other sect simultaneously creates «the Doomsday Machine» with the requirement all to accept a certain especial form of the Buddhism a situation it becomes valid патовой as requirements cannot be satisfied both these simultaneously.) It is important to notice, that the group of people can keep much longer itself in a condition of adjustment for a certain idea, than one human, but groups are less often formed. We will consider different groups of people which can potentially aspire to mankind destruction.

1) eschatological sects. An example: Аум Синрикё. This organisation not only trusted in affinity of approach of a doomsday, but also worked over its approach, the information on the nuclear weapon, viruses and chemical substances gathered. (However, there are different assumptions what did and wanted Аум Синрикё, and to find out the definitive truth it is not obviously possible.) Any religious fanatics choosing death are theoretically dangerous. For example, Old Believers often preferred death to new belief. Such fanatics believe the blessing потусторонний the world or perceive the Doomsday as «a clarification ceremony». Psychological substitution when long expectation something turns to desire of it is Thus possible. Actually, the logic chain leading from peace meditation of destructive activity (for 10 years approximately in case of Аум Синрикё) is that: at first presence of other world is realised. Then it is realised, that потусторонний the world is more important than ours, and overall objectives lay in it. From this follows, that our world is secondary, created by the higher world, and, hence, is small, final and unimportant. Moreover, our world is full of the obstacles, stirring to a pure current of meditation. As the higher world is primary, it it will stop sooner or later existence of our world. As our sect is богоизбранной it receives especially exact knowledge of when there will be an end of this world. And, surprising coincidence, is signs, that it will occur very soon. Moreover, having destroyed the world, our sect will execute will of the god. This possession the superimportant confidential knowledge, naturally, aggravates feeling of own importance of members of sect, and is used for management strengthening in it. The end of our world will mean connection of all good people with the higher world. The knowledge of affinity of the inevitable end, comprehension of positivity of this event and the exclusive role in this important event leads to comprehension, that the sect should not only the nobility and preach about a doomsday, but also approach this event. (Psychologically there is a replacement of long expectation by aspiration.) Besides, it is in passing possible to finish with the enemies and to feel winners of the old world. (I do not wish to tell, that precisely I know, that Аум Синрикё really argued in a similar way. However elements of this reasoning can be found out in the most different groups with eschatological outlook, from Christian to the revolutionary. And at all all people and groups who speak about a doomsday, are going to organise it. Among the known sects expecting a doomsday, - witnesses Иеговы and Mormons.)

2) radical ecologists. Examples: Movement for voluntary extinction of mankind. (The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement - they consider useful mankind extinction, however suggest to carry out it by refusal of reproduction.) such groups consider as the blessing the world of the nature and animals and believe mankind - not without the bases - a cancer tumour on a body of the Earth, conducting to extinction of all live. Also it is possible to recollect radical vegetarians - "vegans", for which the life of animals not less (and under an hour and more) is important, than human.

3) neo-luddity. For example, terrorist Unabomber (Теодор Kachinsky) which considered as a unique exit for a civilisation - a stop of technological progress and returning to the nature, and dispatched by mail bombs to leading scientists-kibernetikam. Three humans were lost also many have been wounded as a result of its actions. Now it serves time in the American prison.

4) the Embittered people movable by revenge. Those who now, for example, shoot from the automatic machine of schoolmates. But such projects nevertheless prepare not for years, and usually some days. Though it is possible to imagine human who has gone mad, having concentrated on idea to revenge the world or the God.

5) Unconscious destructive behaviour. It can be or unexpected splash (to break a test tube with poison), or certain more thin error in an estimation of own purposes. For example, many kinds of a narcotism and extreme behaviour are, according to the psychologists, the latent forms of slow "suicide" (self-destructive behaviour). The requirement for suicide, probably, is written down at human at genetic level and caused in reply to отвержение by its society (for example: сепуко Samurais; a dog dying of loneliness; an alcoholism from loneliness).

6) "fame-thirsty humans". It is clear, what there is nobody will become famous if to destroy all world, but, destroying it, it is possible to feel for a second «the great human». Actually, it will be the perverted display of aspiration to the power.

7) the blackmailers who have created «the Doomsday Machine». It can be the people making any political or economic demands under the threat of utter annihilation of all world. Therefore them can be especially difficult to catch, as their "car" can be in any place.

8) the Universal defensive weapon of last choice. Instead of creating a nuclear board from rockets, a certain country can create one super-power nuclear bomb with a cobalt cover and threaten it to blow up in case of the armed aggression. It is the little less rationally, than the concept of "the mutual guaranteed destruction» for the sake of which strategic nuclear forces are created. And it is similar to behaviour of human which undermines itself a grenade together with the enemy - and after all governors too while people. As such weapon is created not that it to apply and to threaten them. Conceptually it is close to idea of "global blackmail».

9) the risky behaviour giving the big prize or loss. For example, it can be a certain physical or biological experiment. It can be aggravated unwillingness and inability of people to estimate scales and probability of loss in the worst case. An example: Reagan's foreign policy in opposition from the USSR.

10) Requirement for risk for strong experiences, passion. People lost estates in cards not to change the property status that is why that felt requirement for sharp experiences of risk. Now it is shown in extreme sports.

11) Supporters of replacement of people more perfect artificial intellect. On the Internet there are the people advancing this idea. Radical transhumanists too can, even against the will, get to this number.

12) the People believing death by the best alternative to something. One American general in Vietnam has told about the killed inhabitants of one village: «to rescue them, we had to destroy them».

13) Suicides. If human has found the sufficient bases to kill itself, he can not regret and other world. An example: the Italian pilot who ran into tower Пирелли in Milan by the private plane on March, 12th, 2002. Clinical depression can be shown that human starts to show interest to doomsday problems, and then and to wish it that it has more likely come. From here one step to the active help in this process.

14) the Schizophrenics captured by obsessions. Brad at a schizophrenia forces human to find out interrelations not existing in the nature. Schizophrenics often hear voices which subordinate them to itself. We cannot predict, what sort the delirium will result in a conclusion that the earth should be destroyed. Thus mental abilities at a schizophrenia do not decrease so to make impossible realisation of long-term effective strategy. Though special tests can prove schizophrenia presence, outwardly it is not always obvious. Moreover, unlike a neurosis, it is not realised by human. Ability loss to doubt - one of the most serious displays of a schizophrenia. The schizophrenia can be "infectious" in the form of the religious sects duplicating certain crazy ideas.

15) Fighters for the world. In history repeatedly the superweapon was created with that thought, that now it will make wars impossible. With such purpose dynamite has been created, with the same idea the cobalt bomb has been thought up.

16) Children. Already now hackers of teenage age of a steel one of the basic sources of destructive activity on the Internet. Thus it is enough their intelligence to master any one branch of knowledge and to write a virus or to make «бомбочку», but there is not enough still to realise all completeness of consequences of the actions, and the responsibility for them.

17) Перверсия sexual model of behaviour of human, inducing it to extend itself"in the exotic ways. In the head« Danger of molecular manufacture »of the report of the Center responsible nanotechnologyй we can read:« irresponsible fans for whom it will be a hobby can be Other possible source of grey goo. People of certain psychological type, apparently, cannot avoid a temptation possibility to create and set free самореплицирующиеся formation, that to us proves a considerable quantity of existing computer viruses ».

18) Special services and the antiterrorist organisations, aspiring to raise the influence in a society. Itself(himself) the basic on July, 29th, 2008 has finished suspected of realisation of attacks by the Antraxin the USA in the autumn of 2001 Bruce Ivins (Bruce Ivins). Within 36 years before it was one of the main experts in bioprotection and vaccination from the Antraxfrom the USA. It was married, has adopted two children, has written 44 articles, played a synthesizer in local church. As a result of bacteriological attack of 2001 the damage more, than on billion dollars has been caused, and for bioprotection means has been allocated an order of 50 billion dollars. Including it was planned (but purchase developed Ивинсом vaccines from the Antraxon 800 million dollars from which from should receive ten thousand dollars of a royalty has not taken place). As a result of attack and the accepted measures, the number of the people working under programs of bioprotection and having access to dangerous preparations, has increased in tens times so, chances that among them again there will be someone who will make new attack have increased also.

Human always moves some promptings, only a part from which it is realised and it is quite rational. On my supervision, about 10 different desires are frequent and the purposes should were to unite, that I have made a certain decision - that is that sufficient splash in motivation was generated. Thus special psychological procedures are applied to revealing of the latent purposes seldom, and to the majority of people are unknown. Therefore it is easy to expect, that the listed motivations can operate in common, is reserved, нелинейно интерферируя and giving unexpected enormous splash, "wave-murderer".

The social groups, ready to risk destiny of a planet

Possibly, it is necessary to allocate separately the list of social groups and the organisations which aspire to wreck and change of a world order. And for the sake of it or are ready to run risks general destruction, or can create it, not realising it. For example, Ronald Reagan declared "Crusade" against the USSR, but he understood, that in the course of this opposition the risk of catastrophically dangerous war increases.

1) the world powers struggling for domination in the world. It can be or «to attack the first powers losing the power and compelled under the threat of advantage loss», or powers-applicants on the world supremacy, choosing radical and risky methods of achievement of the purposes. The psychology of these processes remains at level struggle for a place of the alpha male in monkey's flight which is, however, rigidly enough determined by the nature of natural selection.

2) the Utopian social movements aspiring to the great purposes, for example, radical communists or the religious organisations.

3) Various national, economic, political forces which do not receive «the share» in present мироустройстве or expect loss of the positions in the future.

4) It is possible to name also different supporters of "apocalypse poetry», fans of computer games in the spirit of Fallout which are involved with this idea that is, unconsciously - and sometimes and meaningly - they and want it.

5) the People living by a principle «after us though a flood» that is not that interested humans of global catastrophe directly, but preferring actions which bring the blessing in short-term prospect, but bear enormous harm in the long-term. This condition can especially become aggravated in connection with comprehension of inevitability of own death, present at each human, and most strongly shown during the risk and old age periods. (Behaviour model: a grey hair in a beard - a demon in an edge.)

6). It is separately possible to allocate all that misunderstanding of the nature and probability of global catastrophes which we will discuss in the second part.