The structure of the global catastrophe

). Actually, I do not agree with many of these authors as they start with the precondition, that technical progress will stop. We will pay attention to last researches in the field of maintenance with power resources: In 2007 in the USA industrial release of solar batteries in cost less than 1 dollar for watt has begun, that twice it is less, than energy cost on coal power station, not considering fuel. The quantity ветроэнергAI which can be taken from ocean shoal in the USA makes 900 гигаватт, that covers all requirements of the USA for the electric power. Such system would give a uniform stream of energy for the account of the big sizes. The problem of accumulation of surpluses of the electric power is solved for the account of application of return закачки waters in hydroelectric power stations and developments of powerful accumulators and distribution, for example, in electromobiles. The weight of energy can be taken from sea currents, especially Gulf Stream, and from underwater deposits метангидратов. Also there are many other perspective energy sources. A question not that there is no energy, or technologies on its extraction - a question in, whether we will have time to develop in time necessary power stations.

Besides, end of exhaustion of resources is behind horizon of the forecast which is established by rate of scientific and technical progress. (But the moment of change of the tendency - Peak Oil - is in this horizon.) only having assumed a full stop of progress in the field of a robotics and nanotechnologyй, it is possible to build exact forecasts about when also what resources will be settled. The question in, whether can the beginning of exhaustion of resources and accompanying crisis so to undermine development of technologies - and this question we will discuss in the head about system crisis.

One more variant of global catastrophe, is a poisoning with products of the ability to live. For example, yeast in a bottle with wine grows after an exhibitor, and then poisons with products of the disintegration and all to one will be lost. This process takes place and concerning people, but it is not known, whether they can pollute and exhaust so the inhabitancy that one only it has led to their definitive extinction. Besides energy, following resources are necessary to people:

Materials for manufacture - metals, rare-earth substances and т д. Many important ores can end by 2050. However materials, unlike energy, do not disappear, and at development nanotechnologyи there is possible a full processing of a waste, extraction of the necessary materials from sea water where the large quantity is dissolved, for example, uranium, and even transportation of the necessary substances from space.

Food. According to some information, the peak of manufacture of foodstuff is already passed: soils disappear, the urbanization grasps the fertile earths, the population grows, fish comes to an end, environment becomes soiled a waste and poisons, water does not suffice, wreckers extend. On the other hand, transition to essentially new industrial type of manufacture of the food plants, based on гидропонике - that is cultivation of plants in water is possible, without soil in the closed hothouses that protects from pollution and parasites and is completely automated. (Agrotechnologies of the future see Dmitry Verhoturova's article and Ильи Kirillovsky «: from an arable land to factory»). At last, margarine as, possibly, and many other things necessary components of a foodstuff, it is possible to develop from oil at the chemical enterprises.

Water. It is possible to provide potable water for the account опреснения sea water, today it costs about dollar on ton, but the water great bulk goes on crop cultivation - to thousand tons of water on wheat ton that does unprofitable опреснение. But at transition on гидропонику water losses on evaporation will sharply decrease, and опреснение can become profitable.

the Place for a life. Despite fast rates of a gain of quantity of the population on the Earth, to a theoretical limit still far.

Pure air. Already now there are the conditioners clearing air from a dust and raising in it the maintenance of oxygen.

Overpopulation

It is obvious, that the overpopulation itself cannot exterminate anybody, but can create conditions at which shortage of any resources will be observed and any conflicts will become aggravated. Thus it is necessary to consider not only people, but also their cars and a standard of living. The car consumes oxygen and biofuel and also loads biosphere, as some human. Therefore even the suspension of growth of the population of people will not mean the termination of a problem of an overpopulation as in process of development of technologies in everyone there will be cars, at home, house robots and т д. Theoretically there is a problem, consisting that population growth will block sooner or later any resources even if the mankind will occupy all galaxy (for some thousand years at preservation of present growth rate of the population) so, there should come a certain point behind which unlimited material expansion will stop. S.P.Kapitsa has deduced the formula from which hyperbolic growth of the population with leaving in infinity around 2027 follows. (Though he also believes, that action of this formula has stopped.) and though real growth of the population lags behind this schedule, we can come nearer to it again if we will add to the population number of the established computers.

Technological revolution causes following factors in population growth:

Increase in number of beings which we attribute the rights equal to the human: monkeys, dolphins, cats, dogs.

Simplification of a birth and education of children. Possibilities of reproductive cloning, creation of artificial mothers, robots-assistants on housekeeping etc.

Occurrence of the new mechanisms applying for the human rights and-or consuming resources: cars, robots, AI systems.

Possibilities of prolongation of a life and even revival died (for example, by cloning on remained DNA).

Growth of a "normal" consumption level.

Besides, growth of the human population increases probability of self-origin of dangerous infectious diseases - and also number of people which will decide to become terrorists. For civilisation destruction the absolute number of terrorists is important not relative, but. On the other hand, the more the population, the is more chance, that someone will survive during huge catastrophe. Besides, the more the population, the is more than themes of technical progress as the increasing number of people are ready to become scientists, and the increasing profit can be received, having sold a certain innovation to the big number of people because the innovation price will be divided on большее number of consumers.

The most important thing that the curve of growth of the population gives to us is an understanding of that so cannot eternally proceed, so there should be a certain point of an excess or crisis which this or that stabilisation follows. It can be and qualitative transition to supercivilization level, and stabilisation at current level, and recoil in a certain stable last condition, and utter annihilation.

Biosphere crash

If people seize genetic technologies it presumes both to arrange crash of biosphere of improbable scales, and to find resources for its protection and repair. It is possible to imagine the scenario at which all biosphere is so infected by radiation, genetically modified organisms and toxins, that it will be not capable to fill requirement of mankind for the foodstuffs. If it occurs suddenly, it will put a civilisation on a side of economic crash. However advanced enough civilisation can adjust manufacture of a foodstuff in a certain artificial biosphere, like hothouses. Hence, biosphere crash is dangerous only at the subsequent recoil of a civilisation on the previous step - or if crash of biosphere causes this recoil.

Thus biosphere - very difficult system in which the self-organised criticality and a sudden collapse is possible. An axiom - destruction of sparrows in China and the subsequent problems with the foodstuffs because of invasion of wreckers. Or, for example, now corals because sewage take out a bacterium which amazes them worldwide perish.

Social and economic crisis. War

In more details this question will be considered further, in the head about various system crises as in a modern society such crisis should lean against different new technologies. Without such technologies war or political crisis cannot simultaneously occur in all territory of the Earth and, thus, create global risk.

Genetic degradation and easing фертильности (abilities to reproduction)

It is obvious, that genetic degradation can be shown only during many generations. If there will be thus an advanced civilisation through generation we can already operate development of embryos and select most healthy of them, and also treat genetic diseases by different ways. If the mankind waits degradation current population will pass through «a bottle neck» that will sharply increase pressure of natural selection and will improve quality of genes. Similar reasonings are true and for problems with фертильностью.

If to extrapolate model «one family - one child» it will result in full extinction of mankind less than for 1000, that leaves for a considered time interval (and it is vulnerable enough for criticism as here there would be a selection aside the most prolific families). However if a certain virus has resulted in total barreness of mankind, and thus technical progress would stop, people would die out by XXII century. Besides, it is a little probable, as technologies of reproductive cloning are already almost ready.

Conclusion: the named factors do not threaten survival of mankind during the considered period.

Kind ageing

There is a concept, that kinds can grow old. Michael Fut, etc. in article «Launch and falling of kinds: new data confirm old idea of" an evolutionary cycle »write:« After kind occurrence its "prevalence" (the area of an area and frequency of occurrence) gradually grows during several millions years, for a short while reaches a maximum and then gradually decreases. Kinds seldom die out suddenly, being on number peak; extinction is preceded usually by the long period of decline … It means, that the paleontologic history of a kind allows to judge probability of its extinction today: those kinds which already passed peak of the development are exposed to the greatest danger and are in a decline phase. The obtained data contradict also to a popular belief that in evolution the short periods of "formation" and the long periods «стазиса» should alternate. Actually kinds, apparently, are not late almost at the maximum reached level and practically at once pass from growth to decline ».

The states and cultures can grow old also, becoming more and more fallen asleep and зарегламентированными, and, finally, - fragile. Probably, can grow old and civilisations of planetary scale, gradually losing interest to a life. Nevertheless hardly it threatens the Earth at a present stage. On the other hand, growth of number of pensioners and "immortal" if those are sometime created, can sometime staticize this problem.

Replacement by other biological kind

Many kinds of animals have terminated that has been superseded by more effective kinds, or мутировали in them. Occurrence of such kind by natural evolution the next 100 years is impossible. Even growth and reduction of number of different races and the people are not processes which will have time to come to the end in the XXI century. Besides, change of ethnic structure is not threat to survival of mankind as kind though this theme causes many emotions, and ethnic conflicts can become global risks of the second sort - that is the situations reducing survival rate of mankind.

Replacement by other kind probably as a special case of genetic experiments or development of symbiosis human-computer. However to supersede human, a new kind, possibly, should be cleverer. Here it is possible to recollect many fantastic plots creation of chimeras from people and animals and about war between two kinds.

As extremely improbable scenario it is possible to name casual coincidence of the moments of death of all people (it is admissible, within a year). For modern mankind the probability of such event would be estimated in fraction with billions zero after a comma, however for a small tribe the statistical anomaly leading to extinction, is possible.

the Place for a life. Despite fast rates of a gain of quantity of the population on the Earth, to a theoretical limit still far.

Pure air. Already now there are the conditioners clearing air from a dust and raising in it the maintenance of oxygen.

Overpopulation

It is obvious, that the overpopulation itself cannot exterminate anybody, but can create conditions at which shortage of any resources will be observed and any conflicts will become aggravated. Thus it is necessary to consider not only people, but also their cars and a standard of living. The car consumes oxygen and biofuel and also loads biosphere, as some human. Therefore even the suspension of growth of the population of people will not mean the termination of a problem of an overpopulation as in process of development of technologies in everyone there will be cars, at home, house robots and т д. Theoretically there is a problem, consisting that population growth will block sooner or later any resources even if the mankind will occupy all galaxy (for some thousand years at preservation of present growth rate of the population) so, there should come a certain point behind which unlimited material expansion will stop. S.P.Kapitsa has deduced the formula from which hyperbolic growth of the population with leaving in infinity around 2027 follows. (Though he also believes, that action of this formula has stopped.) and though real growth of the population lags behind this schedule, we can come nearer to it again if we will add to the population number of the established computers.

Technological revolution causes following factors in population growth:

Increase in number of beings which we attribute the rights equal to the human: monkeys, dolphins, cats, dogs.

Simplification of a birth and education of children. Possibilities of reproductive cloning, creation of artificial mothers, robots-assistants on housekeeping etc.

Occurrence of the new mechanisms applying for the human rights and-or consuming resources: cars, robots, AI systems.

Possibilities of prolongation of a life and even revival died (for example, by cloning on remained DNA).

Growth of a "normal" consumption level.

Besides, growth of the human population increases probability of self-origin of dangerous infectious diseases - and also number of people which will decide to become terrorists. For civilisation destruction the absolute number of terrorists is important not relative, but. On the other hand, the more the population, the is more chance, that someone will survive during huge catastrophe. Besides, the more the population, the is more than themes of technical progress as the increasing number of people are ready to become scientists, and the increasing profit can be received, having sold a certain innovation to the big number of people because the innovation price will be divided on большее number of consumers.

The most important thing that the curve of growth of the population gives to us is an understanding of that so cannot eternally proceed, so there should be a certain point of an excess or crisis which this or that stabilisation follows. It can be and qualitative transition to supercivilization level, and stabilisation at current level, and recoil in a certain stable last condition, and utter annihilation.

Biosphere crash

If people seize genetic technologies it presumes both to arrange crash of biosphere of improbable scales, and to find resources for its protection and repair. It is possible to imagine the scenario at which all biosphere is so infected by radiation, genetically modified organisms and toxins, that it will be not capable to fill requirement of mankind for the foodstuffs. If it occurs suddenly, it will put a civilisation on a side of economic crash. However advanced enough civilisation can adjust manufacture of a foodstuff in a certain artificial biosphere, like hothouses. Hence, biosphere crash is dangerous only at the subsequent recoil of a civilisation on the previous step - or if crash of biosphere causes this recoil.

Thus biosphere - very difficult system in which the self-organised criticality and a sudden collapse is possible. An axiom - destruction of sparrows in China and the subsequent problems with the foodstuffs because of invasion of wreckers. Or, for example, now corals because sewage take out a bacterium which amazes them worldwide perish.

Social and economic crisis. War

In more details this question will be considered further, in the head about various system crises as in a modern society such crisis should lean against different new technologies. Without such technologies war or political crisis cannot simultaneously occur in all territory of the Earth and, thus, create global risk.

Genetic degradation and easing фертильности (abilities to reproduction)

It is obvious, that genetic degradation can be shown only during many generations. If there will be thus an advanced civilisation through generation we can already operate development of embryos and select most healthy of them, and also treat genetic diseases by different ways. If the mankind waits degradation current population will pass through «a bottle neck» that will sharply increase pressure of natural selection and will improve quality of genes. Similar reasonings are true and for problems with фертильностью.

If to extrapolate model «one family - one child» it will result in full extinction of mankind less than for 1000, that leaves for a considered time interval (and it is vulnerable enough for criticism as here there would be a selection aside the most prolific families). However if a certain virus has resulted in total barreness of mankind, and thus technical progress would stop, people would die out by XXII century. Besides, it is a little probable, as technologies of reproductive cloning are already almost ready.

Conclusion: the named factors do not threaten survival of mankind during the considered period.

Kind ageing

There is a concept, that kinds can grow old. Michael Fut, etc. in article «Launch and falling of kinds: new data confirm old idea of" an evolutionary cycle »write:« After kind occurrence its "prevalence" (the area of an area and frequency of occurrence) gradually grows during several millions years, for a short while reaches a maximum and then gradually decreases. Kinds seldom die out suddenly, being on number peak; extinction is preceded usually by the long period of decline … It means, that the paleontologic history of a kind allows to judge probability of its extinction today: those kinds which already passed peak of the development are exposed to the greatest danger and are in a decline phase. The obtained data contradict also to a popular belief that in evolution the short periods of "formation" and the long periods «стазиса» should alternate. Actually kinds, apparently, are not late almost at the maximum reached level and practically at once pass from growth to decline ».

The states and cultures can grow old also, becoming more and more fallen asleep and зарегламентированными, and, finally, - fragile. Probably, can grow old and civilisations of planetary scale, gradually losing interest to a life. Nevertheless hardly it threatens the Earth at a present stage. On the other hand, growth of number of pensioners and "immortal" if those are sometime created, can sometime staticize this problem.

Replacement by other biological kind

Many kinds of animals have terminated that has been superseded by more effective kinds, or мутировали in them. Occurrence of such kind by natural evolution the next 100 years is impossible. Even growth and reduction of number of different races and the people are not processes which will have time to come to the end in the XXI century. Besides, change of ethnic structure is not threat to survival of mankind as kind though this theme causes many emotions, and ethnic conflicts can become global risks of the second sort - that is the situations reducing survival rate of mankind.

Replacement by other kind probably as a special case of genetic experiments or development of symbiosis human-computer. However to supersede human, a new kind, possibly, should be cleverer. Here it is possible to recollect many fantastic plots creation of chimeras from people and animals and about war between two kinds.

As extremely improbable scenario it is possible to name casual coincidence of the moments of death of all people (it is admissible, within a year). For modern mankind the probability of such event would be estimated in fraction with billions zero after a comma, however for a small tribe the statistical anomaly leading to extinction, is possible.