A.V. Turchin
The foreword: G.G. Malinetski
The Russian Transhumanist Movement.
I. V. Sledzevsky
Contents 2
Parenthetical word by Nick Bostrom. 8
G.G. Malinetsky. Reflexions about the inconceivable. 9
Preface 26
Terms 31
Part 1. The analysis of Risks 34
Chapter 1. The general remarks 34
Space of possibilities 34
Problems of calculation of probabilities of various scenarios 36
Principles of classification of global risks 51
Chapter 2. Nuclear weapons 53
2.1 "Nuclear winter”. 54
2.2 Full radioactive contamination 58
2.3 Other dangers of the nuclear weapon 61
2.4 Integration of hurting factors of the nuclear weapons. 64
2.5 Cost of creation of the nuclear potential, able to threaten a survival of a human civilisation 64
2.6 Probability of the global catastrophe caused by the nuclear weapons 65
2.7 Change of probability of the global catastrophe caused by the nuclear weapon by time 68
2.8 Strategy of nuclear deterrence is in doubt 69
2.9 Nuclear terrorism as the factor of global catastrophe 70
2.10. Conclusions on risks of application of the nuclear weapon 70
Chapter 3. Global chemical contamination 71
Conclusions about technologically ready risks 75
The risks, which occurrence it seems inevitable, proceeding from current character of development of technologies 75
Chapter 4. The biological weapons 75
The general reasons and the basic scenarios 75
Structure of biological catastrophe 78
"Self-replicating" synthesizer of DNA 79
Plural biological strike 80
Biological delivery systems 80
Probability of application of the biological weapon and its distribution in time 81
Chapter 5. Superdrug 84
Chapter 6. The risks connected with self-copiing ideas (meme) 86
Chapter 7. Artificial intelligence 88
The general description of a problem 88
AI as universal absolute weapon 91
System of the goals 92
Struggle of AI-projects among themselves 92
«The advanced human» 93
AI and its separate copies 93
AI "revolt" 94
Speed of start 94
Scenarios of "fast start” 94
Slow start and struggle of different AI among themselves 95
Smooth transition. Transformation of total control state into AI 96
"Revolt" of robots 97
The control and destruction possibility 98
AI and the states 99
Probability of AI catastrophe 99
Other risks connected with computers 100
Time of creation of AI 101
Chapter 8. The risks connected with robots and nanotechnologies. 102
The robot-spray 104
The self-reproducing robot. 104
Cloud of microrobots 104
The armies of large fighting robots leaving from under the control 104
The nanotehnological weapons 105
Unlimited spreading of self-breeding nanorobots 106
Probability of occurrence nanorobots and possible time for this event 108
Chapter 9. Technological ways of intended creation of natural catastrophes 109
Deviation of asteroids 109
Creation of an artificial supervolcano 110
Intended destruction of the ozone layer 112
Chapter 10. The technological risks connected with essentially new discovery 112
Unsuccessful physical experiment 112
The new types of weapon, the new energy sources, new environments of distribution and ways of long-range action 116
Chapter 11. The risks created by space technologies 116
Attack on the Earth by means of the space weapons 116
Chapter 12. The risks connected with program SETI 121
Algorithm of SETI attack. 123
Analysis of possible goals. 127
Objections. 130
Chapter 13. The risks connected with washing out of borders between human and inhuman 132
Chapter 14. The risks connected with natural catastrophes 134
Universal catastrophes 134
Geological catastrophes 136
Eruptions of supervolcanoes 136
Chapter 17. The reasons of catastrophes unknown to us now 168
Chapter 18. Ways of detection of one-factorial scenarios of global catastrophe 168
Глава 23. Защита от глобальных рисков 238
Общее понятие о предотвратимости глобальных рисков 239
Активные щиты 241
Действующие и будущие щиты 244
Сохранение мирового баланса сил 246
Возможная система контроля над глобальными рисками 247
Сознательная остановка технологического прогресса 248
Средства превентивного удара 249