The structure of the global catastrophe

Chapter 10. The technological risks connected with essentially new discovery

Unsuccessful physical experiment

The most dangerous is the variant at which considerable discovery will be made absolutely suddenly during absolutely usual experiment as already repeatedly happened in science history, and will be shown in the form of unforeseen consequences.

Fears were expressed, that experiments on creation of microscopic black holes on accelerators, condensation of neutrons and others high-energy experiments can result or in a collapse of terrestrial substance or to enormous explosion which will instantly exterminate a life on the Earth. The basic paradox here is that safety of any experiments is proved by that we know that will turn out as a result, but the experiment purpose is to learn something new. In other words, if we do not learn anything new, what sense to put physical experiments and if we can learn something new it can be dangerous. Perhaps, silence of the Universe means that all civilisations carry out sooner or later a certain experiment on “extraction of energy from the vacuum” which result to collapse of their planets.

Danger of experiments is directly connected with possibility of presence of fundamental physical laws unknown to us. This question is difficult for solving in terms of probability. In the XX century already there were some discovery of fundamental laws, and some have led to creation of new dangerous types of weapon - though by the end of XIX century the world picture seemed finished. I will name only discovery of a radio-activity, the quantum mechanics, the relativity theory, and recently - a dark matter and dark energy.

Besides, there is a number of experimental data and unchecked theories which have different degree of reliability - but many of them assume physical effects which can be dangerous. For example, there were some statements about transmutation of chemical elements without a radio-activity - but it could be the way to produce plutonium for a nuclear bomb. Or, if such transmutation is possible, it could result in transmutation chain reaction across all Earth.

It is considered, that modern experiments on accelerators do not hold out on many orders of magnitude in energy which result from natural collisions of the space beams occurring in atmosphere of the Earth. However in John Lesli's book the estimation is resulted, that if energy of accelerators will grow with this speed, then dangerous levels of energy will be reached by 2100. It shows, that during all XX century each 10 years the energy reached on accelerators increased in 10 times. And though now usual accelerators have approached to the physical limit in the sizes, there is essentially other way to reach same energies on installations in size with desktop - is a question of dispersal of particles in a shock wave of the pulse laser. At the same time the SDI program assumed creation of pulse lasers of enormous force, using energy from nuclear explosions.

The risks connected with physical experiments, quite are realised by scientific community, and the European nuclear centre CERN has published recently the report with a substantiation of safety of the new collider in which the risks connected with occurrence on the new accelerator LHC (will become operational in 2008) are rejected, - which include microscopic black holes, magnetic monopolies and stragelets. Nevertheless, there is a number of scientists and public figures which actively struggle with LHC, criticising offered security measures and their theoretical bases. For example, actively used analogy to natural processes (collision of space beams with terrestrial atmosphere) not precisely corresponds to that will occur in LHC, for example, because speed of the particles formed at collision in atmosphere, under the law of preservation of an impulse, remains close to a velocity of light, and the impulse at collision of counter bunches in LHC will be neutralised, and speed can be zero, that would have crucial importance for the further behaviour of microscopic black holes as in the first case they would fly by the Earth through for shares of second, and in the second - would be late in its substance on большее time, could increase weight and be late it is even more.

Even if to accept those borders of safety (probability of catastrophe P <2*10) which are offered by supporters of continuation of experiments, and to apply to them standard at analysis of risks procedure of an estimation of value, how shows A. Kent in article «Critical review of estimations of risks of global catastrophes», will turn out unacceptable under standards of other fields results - namely, this risk will be equivalent to  destruction from 120 to 60 000 humans.

J. Leslie gives the detailed analysis of various theoretically possible dangerous experiments. Their number concerns:

1) Transition of vacuum in a new metastable condition. There is a hypothesis that the vacuum, being zero power level of all physical fields, is not real such level. In the same way the water level of mountain lake is not the present sea level though water in lake can be wide and smooth. And strong enough splash in waves in such lake can lead to destruction of barriers surrounding lake that will result in outpouring of waters of lake on a sea level. Precisely also, probably, that it is enough high-energy physical experiment can create area of vacuum with new properties which will start to extend beyond all bounds. (Existence of dark energy which accelerates Universe expansion, indirectly confirms that our vacuum is not “true vacuum”.) Occurrence of our Universe, actually, also was transition of vacuum from one condition in another.

2) Formation of the objects consisting from hypothetical quark matter, capable to attach to itself atoms of usual substance. As in its formation play the important role so-called «strange quarks» capable to result the steady matter is called «a strange matter», and its particles - stranglets. The idea of installation which is capable to generate and accumulate slices of this matter is developed, and also to use falling of a usual matter on it for energy generation. Unfortunately, authors of idea say nothing that will be if the clot of a strange matter leaves a trap and will start to absorb substance of the Earth beyond all bounds.

3) Dangerous geophysical experiments with deep drilling or penetration through crust, fraught with formation of a supervolcano and de-gasifiction of deep layers of the earth.

4) Scientific community in details discusses risks of formation of microscopic black holes which could arise at collision of particles on last models of accelerators in the near future. Formation of a microscopic black hole even if it will be steady (and the majority of scientists consider, that it will break up for small a fraction of a second via Hawking radiation though is also not consent), should not lead immediate submerge in it of all substance of the Earth as its sizes will be about the sizes of atom, and round it will be microscopic accretion disk which will dose out substance receipt. But such micro-black hole will inevitably fall towards the earth centre, will slip it and will start to make oscillatory movements.

5) Creation of a magnetic monopole on LHC in CERN. Magnetic monopole can accelerate disintegration of protons, leading to huge allocation of energy, however in CERN report on safety it is supposed, that even if such monopole will arise, it will quickly leave the Earth.

6) Initiation of new Big Bang at experiments on accelerators. (In a sense this process is similar to disintegration of false vacuum. For its start achievement of ultrahigh density of energy in 10 ** 76 gramme on cubic is key. However, the energy can be small, probably, less than energy of explosion of a hydrogen bomb.) Leslie considers this risk in detail. In this connection is interesting the hypothesis, that at occurrence of the different Universes with different properties the greatest share of the Universes would be made by which Universes that are capable to generate the new Universes. (Initially such hypothesis has been stated in connection with the assumption, that such process occurs in black holes.) However as our Universe also « thin adjusted» to be suitable for existence of the intellegent life, capable to develop technology, it is possible to assume, what exactly intellegent civilisations to some extent promote repetition of the conditions conducting to new Big Bang, probably, during unsuccessful physical experiments.

The resulted list for certain is incomplete, as it describes only what we know, whereas in experiments we face what we do not know. Yearly probability of dangerous physical experiment grows eventually as more and more high-energy installations are put into operation and new ways of achievement high energies, and also their applications to objects to which they usually are not applied in the nature are invented. A variety of possible physical experiments which can lead to global catastrophe besides, grows. Development of technologies of molecular manufacture and self-reproduced robots will allow to create in the future huge installations in space, using a material of asteroids, under the price only the first robot - of "seed", that is practically free. It will allow to make much higher energy experiments - and new level of risks.

The interesting variant of new global risk is offered in article «Behaviour of disintegration of false vacuum in late time intervals: possible consequences for cosmology and metastable inflationary conditions», in a Russian-speaking press retold under bright headings like: «Astronomers will destroy the Universe». In it is said, that rate of decay of quantum systems depends because, they are observed or not (the checked up fact), and then it is generalised on a problem of supervision of stability of the Universe as whole in connection with a problem of so-called dark energy. «Having measured density of dark energy, we have returned it in an initial condition, as a matter of fact, having dumped time readout. And in this initial condition the vacuum breaks up according to the "fast" law, and before critical transition to "slow" disintegration is still very far. To put it briefly, we, probably, have deprived the Universe of chances of a survival, having made more probable its fast disintegration». Though hardly this risk is real, the idea of such risk illustrates possibility of that the new global risk connected with physical experiments, can come from the unexpected side.

As always in experiments there is a risk share, it would be necessary to postpone them till the moment of creation of developed AI. It makes sense to do a part of experiments not on the Earth, but far in space.

The new types of weapon, the new energy sources, new environments of distribution and ways of long-range action

Though new principles are unknown, it is possible to outline the most dangerous lines of any absolute weapon.

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  Allocation of a large quantity of energy
  
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  Ability to self-replication
  
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  Ability to cover quickly all territory of the Earth
  
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  Cheapness and ease of manufacture in home conditions
  
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  Possibility of achievement of the intellectual superiority over people
  
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  Way to operate people
  

Any physical effect, capable to generate technology corresponding at least to one of listed above criteria, is the potential candidate for the absolute weapon.