THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
2020
growth rate of exports is projected to decline from
2 percent in 2007–2018 to 1 percent in 2019–2030.
This can be partly explained by: (i) the slower
expansion of production; (ii) stronger domestic
demand in some of the major producing and
exporting countries, such as China; and
(iii) rather high fish prices, which will restrain
overall fish consumption. Aquaculture will
contribute to a growing share of international
trade in fishery
commodities for human
consumption. China will continue to be the major
exporter of fish for human consumption, followed
by Viet Nam and Norway. The bulk of the growth
in fish exports is projected to originate from Asia,
which will account for about 73 percent of the
additional exported volumes by 2030. Asia’s share
in total trade of fish for human consumption will
increase from 48 percent in 2018 to 50 percent
in 2030. Advanced economies are expected to
remain highly dependent on imports to meet
their domestic demand.
The European Union,
Japan and the United States of America will
account for 38 percent of total imports for food
fish consumption in 2030, a slightly lower share
than in 2018 (40 percent) (
Table 18
).
Summary of main outcomes
from the projections
The following major trends for the period up to
2030 emerge from the analysis:
World fish production, consumption and trade
are expected to increase, but with a growth
rate that will slow over time.
In spite of reduced capture fisheries production
in China, world capture production is projected
to grow moderately
owing to increased
production in other areas if resources are
properly managed.
The world’s growth in aquaculture production,
despite its deceleration, is anticipated to fill
the supply–demand gap.
While prices will all increase in nominal
terms, they should decline but remain high in
real terms.
Food fish supply will increase in all regions,
while per capita fish consumption is
expected to decline in Africa, in particular in
sub-Saharan Africa,
raising concerns in terms
of food security.
Trade in fish and fish products is expected
to increase more slowly than in the past
decade, but the share of fish production that is
exported is projected to remain stable.
The new fisheries and aquaculture reforms
and policies to be implemented by China as a
continuation of its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan
(2016–2020) are expected to have a noticeable
impact at the world level, with changes in
prices, output and consumption.
Main uncertainties
The projections presented in this section are
based
on a series of economic, policy and
environmental assumptions. A shock to any of
these variables would result in different fish
projections. Many uncertainties and potential
issues may arise over the projection period.
In addition to the uncertainties caused by
COVID-19, the projections reported here can
be affected by the policy reforms in China
and a multitude of other factors. The next
decade is likely to see major changes in the
natural environment, resource availability,
macroeconomic conditions, international trade
rules and tariffs, market
characteristics and social
conduct, which may affect production, markets
and trade in the medium term. Climate variability
and change, including in the frequency and
extent of extreme weather events are expected to
have significant and geographically differential
impacts on the availability, processing and trade
of fish and fish products, making countries
more vulnerable to risks (
Box 22
).
These risks
can be exacerbated by: (i) poor governance
causing environmental degradation and habitat
destruction, leading to pressure on the resource
bases, overfishing, IUU fishing, diseases and
invasions by escapees and non-native species;
and (ii) aquaculture issues associated with
the accessibility and availability of sites and
water resources and access to credit,
seeds and
expertise. However, these risks can be mitigated
through responsive and effective governance
promoting stringent fisheries management
regimes, responsible aquaculture growth and
improvements in technology, innovations and
research. In addition, market access requirements
related to food safety, quality and traceability
standards and product legality will continue to
regulate international fish trade.
n
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: 
