The Next 100 Years

c e n t r a l a s i a
Central Asia is a vast region running between the Caspian Sea and the Chi­
nese border. It is primarily Muslim and therefore, as we have seen, was part 
of the massive destabilization that took place in the Muslim world after the 
fall of the Soviet Union. By itself it has some economic value, as a region 
with energy reserves. But it has little strategic importance to the Russians— 
unless another great power was to dominate it and use it as a base against 
them. If that were to happen, it would become enormously important. 
Whoever controls Kazakhstan would be a hundred miles from the Volga, a 
river highway for Russian agriculture. 

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During the 1990s, Western energy companies flocked to the region.
Russia had no problem with that. It wasn’t in a position to compete, and it
wasn’t in a position to control the region militarily. Central Asia was a neu-
tral zone of relative indifference to the Russians. All of that changed on Sep-
tember 11, 2001, which redefined the geopolitics of the region. September
11 made it urgent for the United States to invade Afghanistan. Unable to
mount an invasion by itself quickly, the United States asked the Russians for
help.
One thing they asked for was Russian help in getting the Northern Al-
liance, an anti- Taliban group in Afghanistan, to play the major role on the
ground. The Russians had sponsored the Northern Alliance and effectively
controlled it. Another thing the Americans asked for was Russian support in
securing bases for the United States in several Central Asian countries. Tech-
110
t h e n e x t 1 0 0 y e a r s
KAZAKHSTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
CHINA
CHINA
INDIA
INDIA
AFGHANISTAN