The Next 100 Years

RUSSIA
RUSSIA
Adygea
Adygea
Abkhazia
Abkhazia
Karachay-
Karachay-
Cherkessia
Cherkessia
Kabardino-
Kabardino-
Balkaria
Balkaria
North
North
Ossetia
Ossetia
Ingushetia
Ingushetia
South
South
Ossetia
Ossetia
Chechnya
Chechnya
Dagestan
Dagestan
GEORGIA
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
AZERBAIJAN
AZERBAIJAN
AZERBAIJAN
IRAN
IRAN
TURKEY
TURKEY
Black
Black
Sea
Sea
Caspian
Caspian
Sea
Sea
RUSSIA
Adygea
Abkhazia
Karachay-
Cherkessia
Kabardino-
Balkaria
North
Ossetia
Ingushetia
South
Ossetia
Chechnya
Dagestan
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
AZERBAIJAN
IRAN
TURKEY
Black
Sea
Caspian
Sea
The Caucasus
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tremely wary of the Russians. The Russians believe the Georgians looked 
the other way while weapons were shipped through their country to the 
Chechens, and the fact that the Georgians are very close to the Americans 
makes the situation even worse. Azerbaijan is hostile to Armenia—and 
therefore close to Iran and Turkey. 
The situation in the Caucasus is not only difficult to understand but also 
difficult to deal with. The Soviet Union actually managed to solve the com­
plexity by incorporating all these countries into the Soviet Union after 
World War I and ruthlessly suppressing their autonomy. It is impossible for 
Russia to be indifferent to the region now or in the future—unless it is pre­
pared to lose its position in the Caucasus. Therefore, the Russians are indeed 
going to reassert their position, starting with Georgia. Since the United States 
sees Georgia as a strategic asset, Russia’s reassertion there will lead to con­
frontation with the United States. Unless the Chechen rebellion completely 
disappears, the Russians will have to move south, then isolate the rebellion 
and nail down their position in the mountains. 
There are two powers that will not want this to happen. The United 
States is one, and the other is Turkey. Americans will see Russian domina­
tion of Georgia as undermining their position in the region. The Turks will 
see this as energizing the Armenians and returning the Russian army in 
force to their borders. The Russians will become more convinced of the 
need to act because of this resistance. A duel in the Caucasus will result.