The Next 100 Years

t h e c au c a s u s
The Caucasus is the boundary between Russian and Turkish power, and has 
historically been a flash point between the two empires. It was also a flash 
point during the Cold War. The Turkish–Soviet border ran through the 
Caucasus, with the Soviet side consisting of three separate republics: Arme­
nia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, all now independent. The Caucasus also ran 
north into the Russian Federation itself, including into the Muslim areas of 
Dagestan and, most important, Chechnya, where a guerrilla war against 
Russian domination raged after the fall of communism. 
From a purely defensive point of view, the precise boundaries of Russian 
and Turkish influence don’t matter so long as both are based somewhere in 
the Caucasus. The rugged terrain makes defense relatively easy. However, 
should the Russians lose their position in the Caucasus altogether and be 
pushed north into the lowlands, Russia’s position would become difficult. 
With the gap between Ukraine and Kazakhstan only a few hundred miles 
wide, Russia would be in strategic trouble. 
This is the reason the Russians are so unwilling to compromise on Chech­
nya. The southern part of Chechnya is deep in the northern Caucasus. If that 
were lost, the entire Russian position would unravel. Given a choice, the Rus­

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sians would prefer to be anchored farther south, in Georgia. Armenia is an ally
of Russia. If Georgia were Russian, its entire position would be much more sta-
ble. Controlling Chechnya is indispensable. Reabsorbing Georgia is desirable.
Holding Azerbaijan does not provide a strategic advantage—but the Russians
would not mind having it as a buffer with the Iranians. Russia’s position here
is not intolerable, but Georgia, not incidentally closely allied with the United
States, is a tempting target, as was seen in the August 2008 conflict.
Bitter rivalries continue to rage in the region, as always happens in
mountainous regions where small nationalities persist. The Armenians, for
example, hate the Turks, whom they accuse of conducting genocide against
them early in the twentieth century. Armenia looks to the Russians for pro-
tection. Armenian–Georgian rivalry is intense and, in spite of the fact that
Stalin was a Georgian, the Georgians are hostile to the Armenians and ex-
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