II National wealth
C alifornia is a large state on the west coast of the United States that is home to one of the world's most diverse populations. National net wealth, also known as national net worth, is the total sum of the value of a country's assets minus its liabilities. Wealth inequality in California is high and has increased sharply in recent decades. This increase—alongside a parallel increase in income inequality—has spurred increased attention to the implications of inequality for living standards and increased interest in policy instruments that can combat inequality. Taxes on wealth are a natural policy instrument to address wealth inequality and could raise substantial revenue while shoring up structural weaknesses in the current income tax system.
This issue brief provides an overview of the distribution of wealth in California to inform discussion of a potential net worth tax—or other reforms to the taxation of wealth—in the United States.
Wealth disparities have widened over time. In 1989, the bottom 90 percent of California population held 33 percent of all wealth. By 2016, the bottom 90 percent of the population held only 23 percent of wealth. The wealth share of the top 1 percent increased from about 30 percent to about 40 percent over the same period.
L ow-wealth and high-wealth families differ in terms of the assets and liabilities they hold. Cars and other vehicles account for the overwhelming majority of wealth for low-wealth families. Middle-wealth families hold much more of their wealth in home equity, with more modest contributions from retirement accounts, bank accounts, and cars. Very high-wealth families hold much more of their wealth in business equity and financial assets outside retirement accounts.
III Fixed capital statistics
The California economy got hit harder than the rest of the country in the last recession. After a sluggish initial recovery, the nation’s largest state hit its stride by the end of 2011 and in the ensuing five years has grown at a 3.5% annual rate—a respectable pace even by pre-secular stagnation standards. Meanwhile, the rest of the country grew at a pokier 1.7% rate over that same period
T his greater GDP growth is not merely a result of faster population growth, but rather faster GDP growth per capita:
The first clue comes from looking at the growth in the state’s metro areas (Figure 4). Among the four largest agglomerations, the San Jose area—home to Silicon Valley—has easily outperformed the other large metro areas in recent years. Regional GDP in this metro area has galloped ahead at over a 6% annual pace in the five years ending in 2015 (the most recent reading for local area GDP). … The broad industry group the state is most specialized in is information. While this includes southern California’s specialty—motion picture and sound recording industries—it also includes northern California’s areas of expertise: software and the internet. This tech-heavy skew of the California economy also manifests itself in several measures associated with growth and economic dynamism where the state punches well above its weight. For example, although California accounts for 14% of the country’s GDP, it is where 29% of business R&D is spent, more than the next six largest states combined. Overseas investors also have taken notice: 29% of inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) in the most recent data was destined for California. And in the year ending 3Q16 (the most recent data), 33% of the country’s net new business formation occurred in California.
You can expect an economy that looks much like it did in 2016 but with more jobs openings, more pressure to raise salaries and hourly rates of pay, and technology sectors that remain vibrant. This is because the world economy is growing faster again and there is rising demand for technology services and microprocessors.
Job creation is likely to be lower, simply because we are already running at full employment, so recruitment of workers will be difficult and more expensive.
The retail industry should have a banner year. Rates of retail real estate utilization are already low and sales remain moderate to strong depending on the region. With record levels of population, employment, and income, greater levels of spending on goods and services is inevitable.
The visitor industry is not expected to slow much despite the strengthening U.S. dollar. Some slowing has been noticed in a few areas of the State, including Santa Barbara. However, more domestic demand for California vacations will occur in 2017, and much of this will offset the reduction in foreign visitors who are now finding California too expensive.
If immigration law
is tightened and undocumented workers are deported, then the state’s agricultural, construction, and hospitality sectors will experience labor shortages. This will prompt higher wages and salaries and higher rates of inflation in California.
Technology industries are running strong and this is a principal reason that California has outpaced the nation in economic growth. Despite Trumpian rhetoric about bringing jobs back from the Pacific Rim to the U.S., there is likely to be more job creation abroad because tech companies cannot hire enough STEM educated workers here.
Housing will be impacted by higher rates throughout the U.S. but disproportionately in California. Why? Because higher mortgage rates drive monthly payments up by more on higher valued homes. And California has a higher share of higher valued homes than elsewhere. Also, less development of new housing in coastal areas will inhibit the growth of supply. If supply growth does not keep up with demand growth, prices rise. Coastal communities, including the Bay Area, are likely to experience fewer existing home sales in 2017 and higher selling prices.
In conclusion, we learned usefull information about California’s GDP per person, median home price during several years. In a word, there is less decrease than the increase rate.
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