Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Factors Affecting the Forecast of 
Liquid Fuel Consumptions
According to the data of the US Energy 
Information 
Administration 
(EIA) 
of 
December 2021, the average consumption of 
liquid fuels in the world during the period 
(2017-November 2021) amounted to about 
97.4 MMB/D, with a maximum of 101.7 
MMB/D in July 2019 while sinking to a 
minimum of 80.5 MMB/D in April 2020 due to 
the impacts of Covid-19 containment 
measures on global demand. The OPEC 
countries contributed to supplying the global 
market with about 31.6 MMB/D of liquid fuels, 
with a maximum of 36.8 MMB/D and a 
minimum of 27.4 MMB/D. 
Given the importance of the level of liquid fuel 
stockpiles, the EIA provides inventory data in 
million barrels for USA and OECD, in which 
the number of days of oil stocks is calculated. 
For planning purpose that the reserve for 
OECD countries should be sufficient for 
between 60 and 90 days, i.e., an average of 
70 days, equivalent to about 3 billion barrels 
during the same period. The United States 
accounts for 44.5% of this stockpile.
Furthermore, due to the inverse relationship 
between crude oil prices (Brent) and the level 
of OECD stockpiles (such as the number of 
days), which amounted to negative 84% 
during the period (2017- November 2021), as 
shown in Figure (1-1), it is expected that any 
increase in oil price will lead to decline in 
inventory size.
It is noteworthy that there have been upward 
and downward changes in the number of 
days of OECD stockpile level during the 
period (January 2018 – November 2021) in 

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Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
22 
response to the changes in the global oil 
market and the price level.
The average rate of change of liquid fuel 
inventory during January 2017 and 
November 2021 was about negative 0.8%, 
with a maximum of positive 9.9% in May 
2020, and a minimum of negative 12.6% in 
August 2021 with a standard deviation of 
0.07 percentage points. 
One of the major repercussions of the 
measures to contain the Covid-19 crisis in 
2020 is the double shock caused to the oil-
exporting countries, by dropping prices and 
demands for oil derivatives, which 
encouraged importing countries to increase 
their strategic stocks from these materials. 
However, as soon as the prices of oil 
derivatives increased in 2021, especially 
during the period (March-November), led 
many of imported countries having to 
withdraw their strategic stockpile. In fact, the 
US President Joe Biden ordered
9
the release 
of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of 
9
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-
room/statements-releases/2021/11/23/president-biden-
announces-release-from-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-
an ongoing effort to lower prices and address 
supply shortages around the world. 
Furthermore, the measures to contain Covid-
19 led to a reduction in global supply and 
demand for liquid fuels during Q2 of 2020 by 
negative 8% and negative 15%, respectively, 
causing a decrease in prices by negative 
56%, compared to Q2 of 2019. It should be 
noted that supply and demand recovered 
during the last three quarters of 2021 by an 
average of 8% and 5%, respectively. 
Based upon the foregoing, one can say that 
the level of future development of oil prices in 
the global market, and the associated 
changes in the volume of global crude oil and 
natural gas reserves, are largely related to 
the gap, whether wide or narrow, between 
global supply and demand.
Data from the US EIA indicate that the level 
of global inventory will continue to decrease 
until mid-2022, by an average of negative 
4.6%, with a maximum of negative 1% and a 
minimum of negative 8.4%.
Therefore, it is expected that the level of 
global consumption of liquid fuels will 
fluctuate during 2022, between a minimum of 
97.5 MMB/D and an upper limit of 102.1 
MMB/D, but on average, an increase of about 
3.56 million barrels compared to the average 
consumption of 2021, most of which will 
come from the increase of consumption in the 
United States of America by about 0.7 
MMB/D, China by about 0.6 MMB/D, 
European countries by about 0.4MMB/D, and 
Japan will be stabilized, while demand from 
the rest of the world is expected to grow by 
about 1.9 MMB/D (Figure 1-2). 
as-part-of-ongoing-efforts-to-lower-prices-and-address-
lack-of-supply-around-the-world/