Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
19 
Fiscal Balance and the Current 
Account
Estimates of the state's general budget for 
2022 as shown in Table (1-6), indicate that it 
will witness a deficit of QR 8.3 billion 
(equivalent to about 1.2% of GDP), 
compared to the deficit of the 2021 budget, 
which was estimated at QR 34.6 billion 
(equivalent to about 5.1% of GDP).
The estimates of the expected revenues for 
the 2022 budget, was based on two 
assumptions: The first assumption is that the 
price of a barrel of crude oil in international 
markets will increase from $40 a barrel in the 
2021 budget to $55 a barrel in the 2022 
budget, and
the second possible assumption 
is that the quantities of hydrocarbon products 
could be almost equal to the average of 2019 
– 2021 production levels. This led to an 
increase of the total revenue estimate for 
2022 at QR 196 billion, compared to the total 
revenue estimate of 2021 at (QR 160 billion). 
In addition, the 2022 budget data indicates 
that the expenditures for 2022 were 
estimated to rise by 4.9%, i.e. from QR 194.7 
billion in the 2021 budget to QR 204.3 billion 
in the 2022 budge. Most of the increase 
came from inflating estimates of current 
expenditures by 3.3 percentage points in 
anticipation of an increase in government 
expenditures in hosting the World Cup 2022, 
followed 
by 
increasing 
investment 
expenditures by about 1 percentage point. 
As for the development of the process of 
implementing the 2021 budget, and the fact 
that total revenue was estimated at $40 a 
barrel, and in light of the significant escalation 
in global oil and gas prices during the period 
(from January to November 2021),
which 
averaged about $68.7 per barrel, with a 
maximum of $82 per barrel in October 2021 
according to the World Bank. This in turn led 
to an increase in total revenues during the 
first three quarters of 2021 by 18% compared 
to what was proposed in the 2021 budget for 
the same period and was even higher than 
what was actually collected for the same 
period in 2020. 
From the above it is clear that the 2021 
budget will achieve a surplus instead of a 
deficit, as based on the fiscal data recently 
issued by the Ministry of Finance, the public 
finance balance has already witnessed a 
surplus of 1% of GDP during the first three 
quarters of 2021. 
Hence, it is expected that the public finance 
balance will continue to achieve fiscal 
surpluses for the three scenarios during the 
period (2021-2023), as shown in Table (1-7), 
ranging between 1.9% and 3.6% of GDP, 
with an average of 2.7%, which is based on 
two assumptions: (1) the growth in 
commodity export revenues will continue in 
accordance with the average IMF and WB 
forecasts for oil and gas prices; (2) the 
government will continue the process of 
controlling public spending, especially capital 
spending, as a result of the completion of 
most infrastructure projects.