Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
16 
However, it is important to caveat these 
projections with the fact that dissenting 
opinions exist. Noted American economist 
Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times 
that “the problems that have been crimping 
recovery from the pandemic recession seem, 
by and large, to be global rather than local
7
.
As yet unknown or uncertain events, whether 
near or remote from Qatar, but it may affect 
the results of the Planning and Statistics 
Authority's forecast. 
It is worth noting that one of the most 
influential 
factors 
affecting 
private 
consumption expenditure, as indicated in Box 
(1-3), is the likely number of prospective 
consumers during the coming years; in PSA’s 
modeling, the population level has been 
adjusted for the three scenarios, on the basis 
that the population in the optimistic scenario 
matches with the population as determined 
by the 2020 census.
However, according to recent population data 
for the first three quarters of 2021, the 
population within the State of Qatar 
amounted to about 2.64 million compared to 
2.85 million per 2020 census. This requires to 
make an assumption that the population will 
7
Krugman, P., 2021. A World Running on Empty. The New York 
Times, October 29, 2021. 
be ranged between those two figures during 
the next two years, because it is not known 
whether the seasonal departure for 
expatriate workers in the second half of 2020, 
was temporary, as it was before the Corona 
virus crisis, when the residents were traveling 
outside Qatar on tourist trips or visits to their 
home countries, or was the departure 
permanently due to job losses caused by the 
repercussions of COVID-19. Therefore, it 
has been assumed that the population will 
decrease by different proportions for the base 
and mid scenarios (Labor market was 
discussed in texted related to (Box 2-3,4,5) in