Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Assumptions Related to Non-
Hydrocarbon Activities 
It is well understood that the Covid-19 
pandemic has cast a shadow on all non-
hydrocarbon economic activities, including 
manufacturing, building and construction, 
and sub-sectors of the service sector, of 
which transportation, the wholesale and retail 
trades, as well as activities related to 
entertainment and tourism, have all been 
deeply affected whether due to the partial 
suspension of business given the 
enforcement of physical and social distancing 
measures, or due to the slowdown in 
investments caused by the uncertainty that 
prevailed in the consumption process for the 
public and private sectors and the movement 
of foreign trade. 
One of the most important qualitative 
assumptions used as a basis for predicting 

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Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
13 
the path of development of GDP of non-
hydrocarbon activities is the extent to which 
economic activities will recover from the 
repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. It 
has been assumed that the recovery during 
the first half of 2021 would at first be slow, but 
then speed up during the second half of 
2021. 
As for predictions for 2022 and 2023, it has 
been broadly assumed that all economic 
activities will pick up, but a full return to 
normal may not be possible because the 
precautionary measures for travelling abroad 
or for internal movement, as well as the 
radical and plausibly long-term change in the 
lifestyle of the population, will continue to 
curb the level of aggregate demand for goods 
and services. This can be expected to 
continue until the population adapts to the 
new lifestyles. 
However, before considering the quantitative 
assumptions to determine the forecast path 
for non-hydrocarbon activities for each of the 
three scenarios, it should be noted that 
contrary to the above expectations, the non-
hydrocarbon GDP data for the second and 
third quarters of 2021 witnessed a 
remarkable growth of 6% and 4.7%, 
respectively compared to a decrease of 2% 
during the first quarter, mainly coming from 
the recovery of activities that were the most 
affected by COIVD measures including 
transportation, the wholesale and retail 
trades, as well as activities related to 
entertainment, culture, and tourism. 
This growth means that the Qatari economy, 
in terms of non-hydrocarbon activities, 
recovered during the first three quarters of 
2021 by more than 160%, from negative 
4.7% during the first three quarters of 2020 to 
positive 2.9% during the same period of 
2021, most of this deriving from the 
contribution of the recovery of wholesale and 
retail trade activities at 0.63 percentage 
points, followed by the activities of the 
financial and insurance sector at 0.8 
percentage 
points, 
and 
then 
the 
manufacturing activities by 0.54 percentage 
points, which in total not only contributed to 
achieving a total GDP growth of 1.45% during 
the first three quarters of 2021, but also