Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

 Consensus (Mean)
2.8 
3.7 
1.6 
2.4 
2.2 
3.9 
5.8 
5.6 
Median
3 
3.9 
1.4 
2.5 
2.6 
4.5 
5.8 
5.9 
High
3.8 
4.5 
3.9 
3.2 
5.4 
6.1 
9.8 
11.6 
Low
1.6 
2.5 
0.5 
1.2 
-2.3 
-0.9 
1.7 
0.5 
Standard Deviation
0.6 
0.6 
0.8 
0.6 
2.1 
2.1 
2.2 
3.3 
CV (points)
0.2 
0.2 
0.5 
0.2 
0.9 
0.5 
0.4 
0.6 
Source: Latest report of Focus Economic, Institute of International Finance, IMF, World 
Bank up to October 2021

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Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
11 
Macroeconomic Indicators 
Forecasts for the State of 
Qatar
Based on the foregoing and in light of the 
information obtained from the analysis of Part 
Two of this report, several assumptions have 
been made to predict the trends in the levels 
of macroeconomic indicators for the Qatari 
economy. Among the key assumptions are: 
(1) the extent to which the production and 
service sectors will recover as a result of the 
gradual lifting of Covid-19 containment 
measures, (2) the extent to which the 
activities of the hydrocarbon and 
manufacturing sectors will recover due to 
rising global demand for their products, (3) 
the extent of the impact of the improvement 
in global prices of hydrocarbon products and 
the manufacturing industry on achieving 
surpluses in the State’s public budget 
balances and its balance of payments 
account, (4) the effectiveness of reforms 
related to improving the business 
environment in attracting local and foreign 
investments, (5) the stability in both 
availability of the imports designated to meet 
development requirements as well as their 
transport costs, and (6) the extent of the 
impact of the Al-Ula agreement, especially 
with regard to opening the skies and borders 
to the movement of goods and people, on the 
activities of transport, tourism, and the 
wholesale and retail trades. 
Therefore, data and economic information 
derived 
from 
the 
above-mentioned 
assumptions were applied when preparing a 
combination of qualitative and quantitative 
estimates as the foundations for making 
forecasts for three possible scenarios for the 
period (2021-2023), namely: (1) a base 
scenario based on more conservative 
assumptions for hydrocarbon (oil) and non-
hydrocarbon (non-oil) activities, (2) a medium 
scenario based on moderately optimistic 
assumptions, and (3) the most optimistic 
scenario.
Since almost 12 months of 2021 have passed 
when this report was finalized, during which 
quarterly data for the first three quarters and 
monthly data until the end of November 2021 
were published, it is clear that the forecasts 
for 2021 will be based on preliminary data 
rather than on assumptions – except the 
assumption related to the measures to 
contain 
Covid-19, 
which 
continued 
throughout Q2 of 2021, but was gradually 
lifted during Q3. As for Q4, it witnessed a 
benign return to all economic and social 
activities. 
Therefore, these data and initial assumptions 
were taken into account when analyzing