Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

Chapter Outline
THE FOM AS FORECASTER
TRACKING ROOM DEMAND
Computation of Occupancy Forecast
No-shows
Early Departures
Overstays
Use of Current and Future Data
USING PREDICTIVE DATA SOURCES
Transient Guests
Internal Data
External Data
Group Guests
Group History
Group Cutoffs
MANAGING OCCUPANCY FORECAST REPORTS
Pickup Reports
Ten-Day Forecasts
Thirty-Day Forecasts
Extended Forecasts
OTHER FORECASTING ISSUES
Impact on Pricing
Evaluation of Effectiveness
Managing Forecast Data
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Chapter Preview
One of the most important tasks confronting front office managers involves fore-
casting demand for the hotel’s guestrooms. When forecasts are accurate, they can
establish and maintain the hotel’s room pricing structure to maximize RevPar. This
chapter focuses on how FOMs gather and monitor information needed to make
accurate demand forecasts.
One of the best ways for FOMs to predict future room demand is to examine
past demand. FOMs use PMS data to establish and analyze their hotel’s guest reser-
vation, arrival, and departure patterns. Current PMS data also provide clues about the
demand patterns of guests who have reserved rooms but who have not yet arrived.
FOMs also evaluate predictive data about individual and group reservations
when assessing future room demand. Information about individual reservations is
obtained internally, primarily with the PMS. Sources of external predictive data relat-
ing to individual reservations are also of value, and two major compilers of industry-
related data are examined in the chapter: Smith Travel Research (STR) and
TravelCLICK. Group reservation activity is best monitored by assessing group his-
tory and cutoff dates (when blocked rooms are returned to the hotel’s general rooms
inventory); therefore, these two concepts are also reviewed in the chapter.
Pickup is an industry term that refers to reservation activity. Techniques to monitor
short- and long-term pickup are presented in the chapter. Experienced FOMs ulti-
mately use all available information to produce and evaluate their occupancy forecasts.