Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

Computation of Occupancy Forecast
Before studying how FOMs use historical data in making demand forecasts, it is
important to understand how the actual occupancy forecast is computed. Let’s again
consider the 300-room Altoona Hotel. Figure 3 shows the detailed method used by
a PMS to compute one day’s actual occupancy forecast. Let’s review how the forecast
is developed line by line:
Line 1: Identifying the number of rooms in the hotel (300)
Line 2: Subtracting out-of-order rooms (0)
Line 3: Determining net room availability (300)
Line 4: Subtracting stayover rooms (40)
Line 5: Subtracting rooms for which a current reservation exists (150)
Line 6: Determining the number of rooms sold or reserved (190)
Line 7: Adjusting the forecast for anticipated reservation no-shows (15)
Line 8: Adjusting the forecast for anticipated early departures (5)
Line 9: Adjusting the forecast for overstays (10)
Line 10: Determining the number of rooms forecasted to be sold or reserved
after adjustments (180)