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[N. Gregory(N. Gregory Mankiw) Mankiw] Principles (BookFi)


Participation
Rate (in percent)
Women
Men
F i g u r e 2 6 - 3
L
ABOR
-F
ORCE
P
ARTICIPATION
R
ATES FOR
M
EN AND
W
OMEN
SINCE
1950.
This figure shows
the percentage of adult men and
women who are members of the
labor force. It shows that over 
the past several decades, women
have entered the labor force, and
men have left it.
S
OURCE
: U.S. Department of Labor.


5 8 6
PA R T N I N E
T H E R E A L E C O N O M Y I N T H E L O N G R U N
program that financially assists the unemployed or because they are actually
working and being paid “under the table.” It may be more realistic to view these
individuals as out of the labor force or, in some cases, employed. On the other
hand, some of those who report being out of the labor force may, in fact, want to
work. These individuals may have tried to find a job but have given up after an
unsuccessful search. Such individuals, called 
discouraged workers,
do not show
up in unemployment statistics, even though they are truly workers without jobs.
According to most estimates, adding discouraged workers would increase the
measured unemployment rate by about one-half of one percentage point.
There is no easy way to fix the unemployment rate as reported by the BLS to
make it a more reliable indicator of conditions in the labor market. In the end, it is
best to view the reported unemployment rate as a useful but imperfect measure of
joblessness.
H O W L O N G A R E T H E U N E M P L O Y E D W I T H O U T W O R K ?
In judging how serious the problem of unemployment is, one question to consider
is whether unemployment is typically a short-term or long-term condition. If un-
employment is short-term, one might conclude that it is not a big problem. Work-
ers may require a few weeks between jobs to find the openings that best suit their
tastes and skills. Yet if unemployment is long-term, one might conclude that it is a
serious problem. Workers unemployed for many months are more likely to suffer
economic and psychological hardship.
Because the duration of unemployment can affect our view about how big a
problem unemployment is, economists have devoted much energy to studying
data on the duration of unemployment spells. In this work, they have uncovered a
result that is important, subtle, and seemingly contradictory: 
Most spells of unem-
ployment are short, and most unemployment observed at any given time is long-term.
To see how this statement can be true, consider an example. Suppose that you
visited the government’s unemployment office every week for a year to survey the
unemployed. Each week you find that there are four unemployed workers. Three
of these workers are the same individuals for the whole year, while the fourth per-
son changes every week. Based on this experience, would you say that unemploy-
ment is typically short-term or long-term?
Some simple calculations help answer this question. In this example, you meet
a total of 55 unemployed people; 52 of them are unemployed for one week, and
three are unemployed for the full year. This means that 52/55, or 95 percent, of un-
employment spells end in one week. Thus, most spells of unemployment are short.
Yet consider the total amount of unemployment. The three people unemployed for
one year (52 weeks) make up a total of 156 weeks of unemployment. Together with
the 52 people unemployed for one week, this makes 208 weeks of unemployment.
In this example, 156/208, or 75 percent, of unemployment is attributable to those
individuals who are unemployed for a full year. Thus, most unemployment ob-
served at any given time is long-term.
This subtle conclusion implies that economists and policymakers must be
careful when interpreting data on unemployment and when designing policies to
help the unemployed. Most people who become unemployed will soon find jobs.
Yet most of the economy’s unemployment problem is attributable to the relatively
few workers who are jobless for long periods of time.
d i s c o u r a g e d w o r k e r s
individuals who would like to work
but have given up looking for a job


C H A P T E R 2 6
U N E M P L O Y M E N T A N D I T S N AT U R A L R AT E
5 8 7
W H Y A R E T H E R E A LWAY S S O M E P E O P L E U N E M P L O Y E D ?
We have discussed how the government measures the amount of unemployment,
the problems that arise in interpreting unemployment statistics, and the findings
of labor economists on the duration of unemployment. You should now have a
good idea about what unemployment is.
This discussion, however, has not explained why economies experience un-
employment. In most markets in the economy, prices adjust to bring quantity sup-
plied and quantity demanded into balance. In an ideal labor market, wages would
adjust to balance the quantity of labor supplied and the quantity of labor de-
manded. This adjustment of wages would ensure that all workers are always fully
employed.
Of course, reality does not resemble this ideal. There are always some workers
without jobs, even when the overall economy is doing well. In other words, the
unemployment rate never falls to zero; instead, it fluctuates around the natural
rate of unemployment. To understand this natural rate, we now examine the rea-
sons why actual labor markets depart from the ideal of full employment.
To preview our conclusions, we will find that there are four ways to explain
unemployment in the long run. The first explanation is that it takes time for work-
ers to search for the jobs that are best suited for them. The unemployment that re-
sults from the process of matching workers and jobs is sometimes called 

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