Диссертацияларининг асосий илмий натижаларини чоп этиш тавсия этилган илмий нашрлар ва Россия

УЎК: 330.336
Table 1
Selected Economic Indicators in Uzbekistan, 2016-2020
Source:
 IMF, Central Bank of Uzbekistan, Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan
In this article, we have analyzed the causal 
relationship between budget deficits and current 
account deficits in Uzbekistan by using time series 
data over the period of 2000–2020. We have 
empirically tested the hypothesis with autoregressive 
distributed lag (ARDL) and OLS (Ordinary least 
squares) models.
What is twin deficit?
The twin deficit is a phenomenon when budget deficits 
and current account deficits occur simultaneously. 
Today many developed and developing countries 
have been experiencing it. There are two propositions 
that explain twin deficit hypothesis. One of them is 
Keynesian proposition, according to which, there is a 

---

23
№ 2 (13)
Апрель-июнь, 2021 йил
positive relationship between budget deficit and current 
account deficit, since fiscal expansion that usually 
leads to fiscal deficit stimulates aggregate demand in 
the country. An increase in aggregate demand means 
the pressure export goods and rising imports. The other 
is Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis, which asserts 
that there is no link between the budget and the current 
account deficits, and the two are independent of each 
other. According to the Ricardian theory, even if the 
government aims to increase aggregate demand, people 
may postpone their spending by saving for the future.
Salvatore (2006) [2] argues that the increase in the 
budget deficit puts a lot of pressure on interest rates, 
leading to inflows of capital and depreciation of the 
exchange rate. As a result, imported foreign goods will 
become cheaper and exports – more expensive. The 
sharp increase in imports will create a huge deficit in 
current account operations, which in turn threatens 
external balance, and macroeconomic stability in 
general. Thus, the budget deficit and the current account 
deficit are considered to be the main macroeconomic 
issue in any economy.
Today, some countries, including Uzbekistan, face 
fiscal and current account deficits. The Diagram 1 
shows the dynamics of changes in fiscal balance and 
current account balance of Uzbekistan in relation to 
GDP over the period of 2000 and 2020.