Диссертацияларининг асосий илмий натижаларини чоп этиш тавсия этилган илмий нашрлар ва Россия

CA=S-I
S=I+CA=Y-C-G
S=Y-C-G=(Y-T-C)+(T-G)=S^p+S^g
S^p=I+CA-S^g=I+CA-(T-G)=I+CA+(G-T)
CA=S^ρ-I-(G-T)
CA = current account balance
S = saving
I 
= investment
S^ρ = private saving
S^g = government saving
Y = GDP
T = tax revenue
G = government expenditure
C = consumption
Data and methodology
In the empirical analyses, we used time series data 
of Uzbekistan for the period of 2000-2020 in order to 
check the relationship between fiscal deficit and current 
account, and vice versa. The dependent variable is current 
account balance over GDP and the main explanatory 
variable is fiscal balance over GDP. Moreover, interest 
rate, inflation, nominal exchange rate and broad money 
were used as control variables (table 2-3).
Table 2
Descriptive statistics
Variables
Obs
Mean
Std.Dev.
Min
Max
Current Account balance / GDP
21
2.56%
4.31%
-7.09%
7.70%
Fiscal Balance / GDP
21
1.17%
4.87%
-10.56%
12.38%
Interest rate
21
15.95%
6.06%
9.00%
30.00%
Inflation
21
10.55%
7.08%
3.70%
28.20%
Exchange rate
21
2,718.75
2,839.34
237.76
10,064.73
M2 / GDP
21
17.07%
3.85%
10.25%
24.20%
The increase in budget 
deficit will lead to domestic 
absorption and, thus, 
increase domestic income, 
which will lead to an 
increase in imports and 
widen the current account 
deficit

---

25
№ 2 (13)
Апрель-июнь, 2021 йил
Table 3
Correlation matrix of variables
Variables
Current Account 
balance / GDP
Fiscal 
Balance / 
GDP
Interest 
rate
Inflation
Exchange 
rate
M2 / 
GDP
Current Account balance / GDP
1
Fiscal Balance / GDP
0,3322
1
Interest rate
-0,1739
0,3656
1
Inflation
-0,1526
-0,0585
0,3972
1
Exchange rate
-0,1678
0,0069
0,4091
0,8247
1
M2 / GDP
0,2477
-0,2043
-0,4106
-0,3738
-0,2633
1
We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) 
model in the econometric analyses, we also used 
Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model itself to check the 
robustness of the results. When we use the time-series 
data for econometric analysis, we need to make sure 
that the indicators are not stationary. But, indicators 
of the analysis are stationary (average, variance and 
autocorrelation structure do not change over time) 
(except for the inflation index), therefore, we calculated 
the first difference of the variables before applying the 
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.
Y_i=Z_i-Z_(i-1)
The results of The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test 
was provided in the table below (Table 4).
Table 4
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test results
Variable name
t-test 
MacKinnon 
approximate p-val
-
ue for Z(t)
Lags
Dif_CA
-4,091***
0,001
1
Dif_FiscalDeficit
-3,292**
0,0153
1
Dif_Interest_Rate
-3,174**
0,0215
1
CPI
-4,134***
0,0009
1
Dif_LogFExchange
-4,236***
0,0006
1
Dif_M2
-4,036***
0,0012
1
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1