party.
Then shit got weird.
Google has a program called AlphaZero. It’s not chess software. It’s artificial intelligence
(AI) software. Instead of being programmed to play chess or another game, the software is
programmed to learn—and not just chess, but any game.
Early in 2018, Stockfish faced off against Google’s AlphaZero. On paper, it was not even
close to a fair fight. AlphaZero can calculate “only” eighty thousand board positions per second.
Stockfish? Seventy million. In terms of computational power, that’s like me entering a footrace
against a Formula One race car.
But it gets even weirder: the day of the match, AlphaZero didn’t even know how to play
chess. Yes, that’s right—before its match with the best chess software in the world, AlphaZero
had less than a day to learn chess from scratch. The software spent most of the day running
simulations of chess games against itself, learning as it went. It developed strategies and
principles the same way a human would: through trial and error.
Imagine the scenario. You’ve just learned the rules of chess, one of the most complex games
on the planet. You’re given less than a day to mess around with a board and figure out some
strategies. And from there, your first game ever will be against the world champion.
Good luck.
Yet, somehow, AlphaZero won. Okay, it didn’t just win. AlphaZero smashed Stockfish. Out
of one hundred games, AlphaZero won or drew every single game.
Read that again: a mere nine hours after learning the rules to chess, AlphaZero played the
best chess-playing entity in the world and did not drop a single game out of one hundred. It was a
result so unprecedented that people still don’t know what to make of it. Human grandmasters
marveled at the creativity and ingenuity of AlphaZero. One, Peter Heine Nielsen, gushed, “I
always wondered how it would be if a superior species landed on earth and showed us how they
play chess. I feel now I know.”
5
When AlphaZero was done with Stockfish, it didn’t take a break. Pfft, please! Breaks are for
frail humans. Instead, as soon as it had finished with Stockfish, AlphaZero began teaching itself
the strategy game Shogi.
Shogi is often referred to as Japanese chess, but many argue that it’s more complex than
chess.
6
Whereas Kasparov lost to a computer in 1997, top Shogi players didn’t begin to lose to
computers until 2013. Either way, AlphaZero destroyed the top Shogi software (called “Elmo”),
and by a similarly astounding margin: in one hundred games, it won ninety, lost eight, and drew
two. Once again, AlphaZero’s computational powers were far less than Elmo’s. (In this case, it
could calculate forty thousand moves per second compared to Elmo’s thirty-five million.) And
once again, AlphaZero hadn’t even known how to play the game the previous day.
In the morning, it taught itself two infinitely complex games. And by sundown, it had
dismantled the best-known competition on earth.
News flash: AI is coming. And while chess and Shogi are one thing, as soon as we take AI out of
the board games and start putting it in the board rooms . . . well, you and I and everyone else will
probably find ourselves out of a job.
7
Already, AI programs have invented their own languages that humans can’t decipher,
become more effective than doctors at diagnosing pneumonia, and even written passable
chapters of Harry Potter fan fiction.
8
At the time of this writing, we’re on the cusp of having self-
driving cars, automated legal advice, and even computer-generated art and music.
9
Slowly but surely, AI will become better than we are at pretty much everything: medicine,
engineering, construction, art, technological innovation. You’ll watch movies created by AI, and
discuss them on websites or mobile platforms built by AI, moderated by AI, and it might even
turn out that the “person” you’ll argue with will be an AI.
But as crazy as that sounds, it’s just the beginning. Because here is where the bananas will
really hit the fan: the day an AI can write AI software better than we can.
When that day comes, when an AI can essentially spawn better versions of itself, at will, then
buckle your seatbelt, amigo, because it’s going to be a wild ride and we will no longer have
control over where we’re going.
AI will reach a point where its intelligence outstrips ours by so much that we will no longer
comprehend what it’s doing. Cars will pick us up for reasons we don’t understand and take us to
locations we didn’t know existed. We will unexpectedly receive medications for health issues we
didn’t know we suffered from. It’s possible that our kids will switch schools, we will change
jobs, economic policies will abruptly shift, governments will rewrite their constitutions—and
none of us will comprehend the full reasons why. It will just happen. Our Thinking Brains will
be too slow, and our Feeling Brains too erratic and dangerous. Like AlphaZero inventing chess
strategies in mere hours that chess’s greatest minds could not anticipate, advanced AI could
reorganize society and all our places within it in ways we can’t imagine.
Then, we will end up right back where we began: worshipping impossible and unknowable
forces that seemingly control our fates. Just as primitive humans prayed to their gods for rain and
flame—the same way they made sacrifices, offered gifts, devised rituals, and altered their
behavior and appearance to curry favor with the naturalistic gods—so will we. But instead of the
primitive gods, we will offer ourselves up to the AI gods.
We will develop superstitions about the algorithms. If you wear this, the algorithms will
favor you. If you wake at a certain hour and say the right thing and show up at the right place,
the machines will bless you with great fortune. If you are honest and you don’t hurt others and
you take care of yourself and your family, the AI gods will protect you.
The old gods will be replaced by the new gods: the algorithms. And in a twist of evolutionary
irony, the same science that killed the gods of old will have built the gods of new. There will be a
great return to religiosity among mankind. And our religions won’t necessarily be so different
from the religions of the ancient world—after all, our psychology is fundamentally evolved to
deify what it doesn’t understand, to exalt the forces that help or harm us, to construct systems of
values around our experiences, to seek out conflict that generates hope.
Why would AI be any different?
Our AI gods will understand this, of course. And either they will find a way to “upgrade” our
brains out of our primitive psychological need for continuous strife, or they will simply
manufacture artificial strife for us. We will be like their pet dogs, convinced that we are
protecting and fighting for our territory at all costs but, in reality, merely peeing on an endless
series of digital fire hydrants.
This may frighten you. This may excite you. Either way, it is likely inevitable. Power
emerges from the ability to manipulate and process information, and we always end up
worshipping whatever has the most power over us.
So, allow me to say that I, for one, welcome our AI overlords.
I know, that’s not the final religion you were hoping for. But that’s where you went wrong:
hoping.
Don’t lament the loss of your own agency. If submitting to artificial algorithms sounds awful,
understand this: you already do. And you like it.
The algorithms already run much of our lives. The route you took to work is based on an
algorithm. Many of the friends you talked to this week? Those conversations were based on an
algorithm. The gift you bought your kid, the amount of toilet paper that came in the deluxe pack,
the fifty cents in savings you got for being a rewards member at the supermarket—all the result
of algorithms.
We need these algorithms because they make our lives easier. And so will the algorithm gods
of the near future. And as we did with the gods of the ancient world, we will rejoice in and give
thanks to them. Indeed, it will be impossible to imagine life without them.
10
These algorithms
make our lives better. They make our lives more efficient. They make us more efficient.
That’s why, as soon as we cross over, there’s no going back.
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