Globalisation is probably the long-term trend which will have the most impact on the
future of jobs and work. We live in a highly connected and interdependent world –
and this trend is only expected to increase over time – where no country holds a
Jobs for the Future 7
interdependence and connectedness. For the first time in history these interconnected
systems are truly global, which also means that a disruption in part of the system can
have consequences in economies all over the world, as exemplified by the global
financial crisis (Trilling and Fadel, 2009).
In many emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
(the BRICS), innovation is occurring at a faster pace than that of developed countries.
The lack of legacy infrastructure and rapidly growing markets have been identified
as some of the main factors fuelling higher rates of growth in the developing world
(Davies et al, 2011). As stated by an interviewee from the financial sector, this highly
innovative and interlinked system has fostered the rise of new economic centres –
Shanghai, Johannesburg, Kuala Lumpur – which are leading specific production and
innovation fields. These new economic centres are not only challenging the
dominance of the traditional leaders and increasing competition at a global level, but
also their proximity to high growth markets, such as Asia and Africa, provides them
with a competitive advantage. PwC (2010) predicts that by 2040, six of the ten largest
industrial clusters will be located in today’s emerging markets rather than in the
developed world.
The past few decades also have also been witness to the rise of emerging economies,
and the companies they housed, which are playing an increasingly substantive role
at the global level. While in the past, multinational companies often viewed their
overseas subsidiaries – often located in developing countries – as structures to
support headquarters, today outsourcing and increasing internationalisation of
business have led to higher degrees of interdependency (Davies et al, 2011). No
longer are the lists of the world’s most successful companies completely filled with
Western names—in the past decades, multinationals based in China, India, and across
Latin America have come to dominate their domestic and international markets. As
proof of this restructuring, in 2006, outward foreign direct investment from Latin
American companies topped more than US$40 billion—an increase of more than
115% from the prior year (Casanova et. al, 2009). This shows that emerging
economies’ firms are not simply domestic players, but able and willing to pursue
international markets. In this context, businesses around the world have increasingly
recognised the inherent need to build more resilient value chains. The challenge is
not only to employ people in different locations, but to ensure that employees and
local business units are fully integrated into global operations in order to remain
competitive, a common concern amongst representatives from the private sector
(Davies et al, 2011; Störmer et al, 2014).
Experts interviewed for this report have highlighted that they foresee that the
innovation required to fuel economic growth will most likely be characterised by
higher levels of economic and financial interdependency. As mentioned by several
representatives from the private sector, as interconnectivity and interdependency
increase, this will affect the business structures and ecosystems. These comments are
aligned with research conducted by Störmer et al (2014) who argues that the role of
business is expected to shift from core production competencies to assuming the focal
point of network interaction. Real value is also expected to shift for companies — it
will be based on ‘social capital,’ a measure of the value of a company’s networks and
relationships and the capacity to manage those connections to achieve desired results.
A shrinking middle-skill economy will characterise the new knowledge economy.
As high-skill workers maintain strong bargaining positions, low-skill workers will
be more deeply affected by declines in the numbers of low-skill jobs and increasing
cost-reduction strategies. Several interviewees for this report mentioned that they
expect the typical middle-skills jobs numbers to decline as well, as administrative
and semi-skilled labour positions are made redundant by globalisation and
Jobs for the Future 8
technological innovation. While new jobs are expected to emerge to occupy the
middle-skill level, they will be characterised by a different set of skills and route of
skills-acquisition (Störmer et al, 2014).
The new knowledge economy will be defined by high-skill workers, with several
experts forecasting a skill shortage of those not only in developed economies but also
in new emerging economies. The simple lack of skilled workers — not even high-
skill, but simply educated or trained — is expected to reach 45 million in developing
economies, much of this demand driven by India, the rest of South Asia and Africa
(Dobbs et al, 2012).
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