Neg for Venezuela Practice Debate

---Appeasement---AT: No Assume Maduro

Chavez’s successor only magnifies the controversy

Washington Post 13 (03/06, “A misguided U.S. strategy for Venezuela,” http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-03-06/opinions/37497866_1_nicolas-maduro-apartments-and-appliances-henrique-capriles)

ANTICIPATING THE death of Hugo Chavez, the Obama administration began reaching out months ago to his designated successor, Nicolas Maduro, in the hope of bettering U.S.-Venezuelan relations. On Tuesday, that strategy absorbed a body blow: Hours before revealing that Mr. Chavez had died of cancer, Mr. Maduro tried to blame the United States for his illness, and he expelled two U.S. military attaches on charges of “proposing destabilizing plans” to the armed forces. So much for the “reset” with Caracas. The ludicrous and crude propaganda launched by Mr. Maduro was a sign that Mr. Chavez’s successors will be more thuggish and less politically adept than he was — and, if anything, more inclined to scapegoat the United States and Venezuela’s democratic opposition for the horrendous problems the caudillo leaves behind.

Nothing Changed – Maduro pursuing “all out Chavismo”

Alic, 13

Jen Alic of Oilprice.com, 4/21/13, http://www.mining.com/web/foreign-oil-and-gas-companies-look-to-status-quo-in-venezuela/

Foreign oil and gas companies look to status quo in Venezuela Now that Nicolas Maduro—the late Hugo Chavez’s choice for successor—has narrowly won Sunday’s presidential elections in Venezuela, oil and gas investors can expect a perpetuation of the status quo. In Sunday’s voVte, Maduro won with a very narrow 50.7% and a vow to continue with Chavez’s “revolution,” which has seen the oil industry nationalized and the state-run PDVSA oil company funding social programs and voraciously courting China and Russia. The narrow vote will not be without its challenges. Opposition rival candidate Henrique Capriles has refused to recognize the results and is demanding a recount, though the electoral commission is standing firm on Maduro’s victory. For foreign oil and gas companies, we can expect more of the same. There are no regulatory changes in the works, and an unattractive windfall tax system announced in January will likely be pushed forward under Maduro. What Maduro is inheriting, though, is a nightmare situation that will see him stuck between using PDVSA to fund expensive social programs that cost it $44 billion last year alone diverted from oil revenues, and cutting social spending or allowing a rise in the price of fuel that could spark regime-threatening unrest. If Maduro feels compelled to reduce fuel subsidies, it could lead to riots as cheap fuel—which cannot be sustained—is one of the most crucial social benefits for Venezuelans, who pay around 6 cents per gallon. Maduro has inherited a “sinking ship” and does not appear to have the political capital to make any short-term changes in Venezuela’s energy policy, experts at Southern Pulse told Oilprice.com. “The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is struggling, down from a peak of about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs and construction, and investing in exploration and new technology would be priorities but Maduro will not have funds to invest unless he makes controversial cuts to social programs,” according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut fuel subsidies any time soon. A top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity, says Southern Pulse. Towards this end, Maduro may be willing to negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize. “If PDVSA fails to increase production, PDVSA President Rafael Ramirez may be replaced this year. One way for Maduro to keep his presidency afloat is to bring new proven wells online in the Orinoco Belt; but that will require major investment. PDVSA may need more than a minority-partner-with-a-service-contract at those fields if they want to start pumping soon.” In the meantime, China’s foothold in Venezuela remains on solid ground. China is already privy to 600,000 bpd from Venezuela in return for $42 billion in loans. Maduro is not likely to rock this boat with Beijing, and according to the terms already in place, Venezuelan exports are set to increase to one million bpd by 2015, though most of the loan money has already been spent. According to Southern Pulse, Maduro will likely seek new loans from China, but this will depend on the terms and stability in Venezuela. If this doesn’t work, Maduro will have to look elsewhere—first to Russia and then perhaps to US Chevron or Spanish Repsol, the latter two having only limited operations in the country. Overall, we should consider that Maduro will pursue all-out chavismo. “As president, Maduro will govern as he thinks Chavez himself would have ruled. However, Maduro probably will not begin pandering to the most radical elements of his party, PSUV, because he has little to gain from that. Maduro is not blind to the myriad problems facing the next president such as blackouts, food shortages and rampant criminal violence,” according to Southern Pulse. While it’s status quo for now for the oil and gas industry, it’s clearly bad news for Maduro. “Despite Chavez’s immense popularity, his memory will fade. And with time citizens who loved Chavez will blame Maduro for their struggles,” experts at Southern Pulse say. “If Maduro survives that long, the next election in 2018 will involve a much deeper conversation about the direction of the country.” “In fact, some think that one reason former military leader and current National Assembly Diosdado Cabello—a Chavez loyalist–did not dispute Maduro’s succession is precisely because of the precarious financial and political situation he would have inherited.”

Chavez death changes nothing

Goodman, 13 (Josh, Bloomberg reporter responsible for economic and political coverage in Latin America, 4/17,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/venezuelan-leader-s-taunts-won-t-provoke-u-s-diplomat-says-2-.html

The U.S. is unlikely to adopt a more confrontational stance toward Venezuela even as President- elect Nicolas Maduro ratchets up his rhetoric in the wake of his narrow victory, the State Department’s top official for Latin America said. Echoing charges frequently levied by his political mentor, the late President Hugo Chavez, Maduro yesterday accused the U.S. of trying to oust him by supporting opposition calls for a recount of ballots in the April 14 election he won by about 270,000 votes. Today, he likened President Barack Obama’s policy towards Venezuela to U.S. support for the overthrow of Chile’s Salvador Allende in 1973. Roberta Jacobson, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, said such rhetoric has become more commonplace since Maduro took control of Venezuela’s troubled economy following Chavez’s death from cancer last month. While that makes it harder for relations to improve, the U.S. is unlikely to respond in kind, she said. “I don’t think there’s going to be a marked difference in the way we respond to Maduro versus the way we responded to Chavez,” Jacobson, a career diplomat, said in an interview from the State Department in Washington. “It still doesn’t make sense to get in, you’ll excuse me, a pissing match with Nicolas Maduro any more than it did with Chavez.” While relations between the U.S. and Venezuela have long been strained -- the two countries have gone without ambassadors since 2010 -- former president George W. Bush in his second term adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Chavez, which Obama continued. Other Cheek At the heart of what Jacobson called a “turning of the cheek” approach are strong commercial ties -- Venezuela was the U.S.’s fourth-biggest supplier of oil last year -- and a sense of political realism. That means that while the U.S. won’t back away from expressing its disappointment with the fairness of the election and the lack of a recount, that shouldn’t lead relations to deteriorate further, she said. While Russia, China and most of Latin America has congratulated Maduro for his win, the U.S. and European Union have held back support while seeking a recount to address opposition claims of irregularities. “If Friday Maduro is sworn in as president, I don’t think that’s going to change very much from one day to the next our positions,” said Jacobson, who has served as the U.S.’s top diplomat to Latin America since 2011. ‘Rush to Judgment’ Jacobson said the U.S. will continue to believe that the way the election results were handled represent a “rush to judgment” that won’t help Venezuela overcome deep political divisions. Still, Jacobson said she doesn’t harbor much hope that relations will improve either, even after what she described as Maduro’s favorable response to a U.S. outreach a few months ago. In November, Jacobson said she called then-Foreign Minister Maduro to discuss how to get relations back on track in a likely post-Chavez government. High-level meetings between the two governments were also held, though they lost momentum as Chavez’s worsening health came to dominate the nation’s affairs, she said. Then, in the hours before Chavez’s death, Maduro suggested the U.S. may have poisoned the socialist leader. During the month-long campaign he continued to ramp up “exponentially” his anti-American rhetoric, “making it much harder” today to find any common ground, Jacobson said. Long Harangue Jacobson’s first encounter with Maduro, at the April 2012 Summit of the Americas in Colombia, was also marked by confrontation. In a private negotiating session attended by foreign ministers, she said she was subjected to a “long, long harangue” by Maduro, in which he accused the U.S. of imperialism and starving communist Cuba with its half-century trade embargo. “There were many around that table who were acutely uncomfortable with him yelling -- and he was yelling at this point -- at a woman across the table,” she said. “Closing the doors didn’t seem to make a difference.” Then, less than two months later, at a meeting of the Organization of American States in Bolivia, the two traded pleasantries while posing side-by-side for a group photo. Maduro said he held no grudges against her or the U.S., according to Jacobson. “It’s very hard to read these signals,” she said. “Every time we get to the point of actually working on substantive stuff, we end up taking steps backward with accusations of everything from killing Chavez with cancer to coups.”