Neg for Venezuela Practice Debate

Neg solvency

1NC Frontline

( ) Maduro must say “no”. The upside of plan gets outweighed by domestic politics. If he accepts, he’ll get destroyed politically.

Shifter ‘13

Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. “A Bolivarian Dream Deferred” – Foreign Policy, June 24, 2013 – http://thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3338

It makes sense for Venezuela to reach out to the United States, but at least in the short term, Maduro will have a tough time holding back on his strident, anti-American rhetoric. For political survival, he needs to prove his Chavista bona fides to the base that brought him to the presidency. Whatever happens abroad, Maduro will be increasingly consumed by Venezuela's staggering problems at home. Chávez left a country devoid of institutions. Instead, he bequeathed cronies like Maduro who has so far been able to fend off criticism from his neighbors but is hardly in a position to lead the kind of broad ideological movement that Chávez was able to cobble together in his glory days.

( ) Snowden affair confirms US has no leverage over Venezuela.

Sanchez ‘13

W. Alex Sanchez, Research Fellow, Council on Hemispheric Affairs – “Asylum for Snowden? Why are Venezuela, Nicaragua, others in Latin America doing this?” – Matisak Blog – July 7th – http://matisak.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/asylum-for-snowden-why-are-venezuela-nicaragua-others-in-latin-america-doing-this/

It wouldn’t be outrageous to assume that if Venezuela or Nicaragua accept Snowden, Washington may want to apply soft power/soft pressure as some kind of “punishment,” this may mean calling back ambassadors and diplomatic staff (though at this point I’m amazed there are any U.S. diplomats in Venezuela after the Chavez era), expelling diplomatic staff from these nations from the U.S., or maybe Washington could cancel some trade deals or impose some kind of trade embargo. For example Ecuador withdrew from the ATPDEA treaty at the same time that it was considering to accept Snowden. But that treaty was going to expire soon anyways and it seemed unlikely that the U.S. would want to renew it (especially if the Quito had accepted Snowden). When it comes to Venezuela, it seems clear that Maduro has little interest in strengthening trade or diplomatic relations with the U.S., so any kind of “punishment” from Washington. With that said, I am slightly surprised about Nicaragua. Certainly, Ortega was no friend of the U.S. during the Cold War, but modern-day Nicaragua-U.S. relations are not particularly bad, or as bad as U.S.-Venezuela relations at least. Recently, SOUTHCOM donated parachutes and some other military equipment to Nicaragua’s special forces (this happened in late June), so some military cooperation between the two governments does exist. I think Nicaragua potentially stands to lose a lot if Snowden does touch Nicaraguan soil, as compared if the American ends up in Venezuela.

( ) QPQ Negotiations can’t work. Too much tension, too little mutual respect

O’Reilly ‘13

Andrew O'Reilly – Writer/Producer for @FoxNewsLatino. “U.S.-Venezuelan Relations Remain Tense Under Maduro, Experts Claim” – Fox News Latino – April 17 – http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/17/us-venezuelan-relations-remain-tense-under-maduro-experts-claim/#ixzz2YYYnvrAl

While the ultimate impact of the Venezuelan presidential election remains to be seen, what's for sure is that relations between the United States and the administration of President-elect Nicolás Maduro will continue to be as tense as under the late Hugo Chávez, experts said. After voting on Sunday in a Caracas slum, Maduro said that while he would like to reestablish relations with the U.S. “in terms of equality and respect,” Washington will always try to undermine his rule. These words followed a steady rhetoric on the campaign trail of Maduro accusing the U.S. of conspiring against him and causing disruptions in Venezuela to unseat his rule, including working with opposition labor unions and causing electric power blackouts. Experts argue that given Maduro’s anti-American sentiments leading up to the election, as well as the controversy surrounding his victory and the polarization in Venezuela, there is little hope for a change in relations between the countries. “It’s hard to see [Maduro] backing off his rhetoric in the aftermath of the election,” Eric Hershberg, the director of American University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, told Fox News Latino. “Americans will insist on a level of respect that he is not going to give them.”

Extensions off “Say no”

( ) Maduro will say “no” – domestic politics dictates that he must.

Forero ‘13

Juan Forero is The Washington Post's correspondent for Colombia and Venezuela, having previously been The New York Times' Bogotá bureau chief. He joined the Post in September 2006. “With Snowden offer, Venezuela’s Maduro is on world stage” – Washington Post – July 8^th – http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/with-snowden-offer-venezuelas-maduro-is-on-world-stage/2013/07/08/35d83f42-e812-11e2-818e-aa29e855f3ab_story.html

The Snowden saga — a young American revealing secrets the U.S. government wants to contain — provided the perfect opportunity for Maduro to take on the Obama administration, said Eduardo Semtei, a former Venezuelan government official. “To figure internationally, to show that he is a player among big powers, he offered asylum to Snowden,” said Semtei, who had been close to Chávez’s brother, Adán, a leading ideologue in the late president’s radical movement. “This grabs headlines, and it shows that he’s a strong president, one with character, and that he’s capable of challenging the United States.” Maduro and Venezuela came late to the Snowden saga, as tiny Ecuador, an ally also committed to opposing American initiatives, heaped praise on Snowden and expressed a willingness to help him after he had flown from Hong Kong to Moscow on June 23 to avoid American justice. When Ecuador backed away from its initial enthusiasm over Snowden, Venezuela stepped in last week as Maduro arrived in Moscow for an energy summit. The 50-year-old Maduro, who found his political calling as a socialist activist with close ties to Cuba, took a sharply anti- imperialist stand in embracing Snowden. He said the United States had “created an evil system, half Orwellian, that intends to control the communications of the world,” and characterized Snowden as an antiwar activist and hero who had unmasked the dastardly plans of America’s ruling elite. Political analysts say the opportunity to take sides against Washington was simply irresistible for a government that has for years characterized itself as a moral force speaking out for the weak against “the empire,” as the United States is known in Caracas. And the fact that the secrets Snowden divulged were embarrassing to the Obama administration only gave more fuel to Venezuela, former Venezuelan diplomats and political analysts in Caracas said. “Edward Snowden became the symbol for the anti-imperialist rhetoric, for progressivism, for international radicalism,” said Carlos Romero, an analyst and author who closely tracks Venezuela’s international diplomacy. Venezuela helped channel the fury of Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Uruguay and Suriname after Bolivian President Evo Morales’s plane was apparently refused entry into the airspace of as many as four European countries last Tuesday because of the belief that Snowden was hiding aboard. And on Monday, Venezuela’s state media apparatus seemed to take more offense than the Brazilian government over revelations that the NSA had collected data on countless telephone and e-mail conversations in Brazil. But former diplomats familiar with Venezuela say that there are other aspects to consider in deciphering Maduro’s support for Snowden. Ignacio Arcaya, a diplomat who served the Chávez government in the United States in the early part of his presidency, said Maduro has had the challenge of trying to ease the concerns of radicalized sectors in his movement that have been worried about a resumption of relations with Washington now that Chávez is gone. Indeed, until recently, Maduro was spearheading an effort at rapprochement, as shown by a meeting in Guatemala on June 5 between Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Venezuelan counterpart, Elías Jaua. “What Maduro is doing is aimed at quieting the radical sectors of his party who think he is negotiating with the United States and think that he’s talking to private industry,” Arcaya said. Maduro also has to consider his own unstable political position after the April 14 election, which is being contested by his challenger, Henrique Capriles, who says the vote was stolen from him. At the same time, Maduro faces millions of Venezuelans tired of the country’s sky-high inflation, rampant homicide rate and serious shortages of everything from chicken to toilet paper. Myles R.R. Frechette, a retired American diplomat who served in Venezuela and other Latin American countries, said Maduro is using a tried-and-true strategy: loudly oppose the United States to distract from domestic problems. “It plays very well,” said Frechette. “It’s the card to play. It’s what you’ve always got in your drawer. You open your drawer and play to your most radical elements.”

( ) Maduro won’t engage with the US

Shinkman ‘13

Paul – National Security Reporter at U.S. News & World Report – internally quoting Doug Farah, a former Washington Post investigative reporter who is now a senior fellow at the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center. “Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?” – US News and World Report – April 24^th – http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond?page=2
[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps and corrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to turn to [the elites] for money."¶ "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because he needs them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez.¶ U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in the hopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries.¶ But Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a more confrontational approach to the United States to prove his credentials to these Bolivarian elites.¶ "Maybe if he were operating in different circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatist right now."

Extensions off of “QPQ Negotiations can’t work”

( ) Snowden affair means the US-side will breakdown Venezuelan negotiations.

Negroponte ‘13

Diana Villiers Negroponte is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, specializing in Latin America. She previously worked at the U.S. Institute of Peace. She travels frequently to Latin America. “Consequences for Venezuela if Maduro Offers Asylum to Edward Snowden” – Brookings Blogs – July 2^nd – http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2013/07/02-snowden-venezuela-asylum-negroponte

Within these relations, Secretary of State Kerry met with Foreign Minister Elías Jaua on the margins of the recent OAS meeting in Guatemala. The report of the meeting indicated that Kerry was firm and insisted that improvements had to be made in specific areas before diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level could resume. Among those areas of collaboration was Venezuelan permission for Drug Enforcement Agents to carry out counter-narcotics investigations and improvement of airport security. Without serious progress in these areas, relations with Washington would not improve. More recently, the State Department has sent the message to Jaua through his Charge d’Affaire in Washington, Calixto Ortega, that the grant of asylum to Snowden would jeopardize all bilateral projects. In appointing Ortega to Washington, bilateral relations had begun to improve. “Ortega has a lot of knowledge of U.S. society, and we know that he will contribute a lot towards increasing dialogue…We want to have the best ties with all the world’s governments, and the U.S. government, but on the basis of respect. There can be no threats,” said Maduro in his April 24th statement reported by www.venezuelanalysis.com. “I have decided to name Calixto Ortega so that dialogue with U.S. society can increase, with the universities, the academic world, the social and union world, the Afro-American community, the Latino community, Congress, senators, representatives, the economic, trade and energy sectors.” Ortega, the former Venezuelan minister to the Latin American parliament was well received at the State Department and hope exists in Washington that bilateral relations can improve on a steady and pragmatic basis. However, flying Snowden to Venezuela and granting him asylum will blow apart the prospects for improved relations. The recently formed Continental Coalition of Social Movements in support of the Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) may rejoice that Snowden can operate and speak freely in Venezuela, but the prospects of dialogue with U.S. economic, trade and energy sectors will fizzle out. Without U.S. support, few nations will step in to help meet Venezuela’s rising debt repayments and falling foreign reserves. In deciding whether to give Snowden a way out of Moscow, Maduro must balance the economic wellbeing of Venezuela against the short term notoriety of saving Snowden.

Extensions off of “No US leverage”

( ) US has no influence – their QPQ’s teases improved relations, but that doesn’t play in Caracas.

Navia ‘13

Patricio Navia, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies, New York University, “Asylum for Snowden? Why are Venezuela, Nicaragua, others in Latin America doing this?” – Matisak Blog – July 7th – http://matisak.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/asylum-for-snowden-why-are-venezuela-nicaragua-others-in-latin-america-doing-this/

Venezuela and Nicaragua want to embarrass the US. They are not doing this out of a commitment to press freedom or because of an interest in promoting freedom of information or defense of personal privacy. Neither of those two countries has a good track record on freedom of the press. In fact, both governments have been criticized by freedom of the press advocacy organizations. The two countries have tense relations with the US. This will probably add additional tensions. But those governments want to increase tensions because they will use it to deviate attention from their own problems and to rally domestic support. Because their governments are not doing well, presidents Maduro and Ortega want to create tensions to use the nationalist card to deviate attention from their own mistakes and mismanagement.