Nargiza kasimova farkhod mukhamedov elkan harebov

Forecast
 
1. Forecast of macroeconomic 
development: 
gross domestic product 
- national income 
- volume of production 
- shares of national income used for 
accumulation 
- tax regulation of investment and 
entrepreneurial activity (benefits 
and tax burden) 
- monetary policy (refinancing 
rates, conditions, and forms of 
lending, etc.) 
- management of state property 
1. Level of industry prospects: 
- phase of the life cycle of the 
industry 
- gross output of the industry and 
its specific gravity 
- ratio of the country's GDP and the 
volume of production in the 
industry 
- social importance of the industry 
(number of employees) 
- industry average rate of return 
- payback period for capital 
investments in the industry 
- port share 
1. Level of prospects of the region: 
- share of the region in GDP 
- volume of industrial output per 
capita 
- average level of wages 
- volume and dynamics of capital 
investments per 1 resident 
- number of enterprises 
- proportion of unprofitable 
enterprises 
- budgetary security 
- investment infrastructure of the 
region (number of contracting 
construction enterprises, volume of 
1. The development strategy of the 
enterprise in need of investment. 
2. The forecast payback of 
investment projects of the enterprise 
by compiling and ranking business 
plans for these projects 
 

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Levels 
macroeconomic 
industry 
regional 
investment objects 
(enterprise/production) 
(privatization, nationalization) 
- budgetary policy (priority areas of 
budget financing, payment of state 
orders) 
- development of the financial 
market (money and securities 
market). 
2. Risks of entrepreneurial activity: 
- political (change of government, 
foreign and domestic policy, 
nationalization) 
- economic (changes in legislation 
on economic development: tax, 
budget, customs, etc.; inability or 
unwillingness to manage inflation, 
the financial market (including the 
currency, money, credit markets, 
securities market, etc.) 
- environmental risks (environ-
mental prohibitions, restrictions, 
and requirements, including 
international ones; regulation by 
priority financing of environmental 
programs or restrictions by means 
of high resource charges or charges 
for environmental pollution). 
3. State programs for the 
development of the country's 
economy and certain areas of 
economic activity 
- provision with own sources for 
investment activity 
- number of unprofitable 
enterprises 
- tax burden 
- share of state ownership. 
2. The level of industry investment 
risks (the level of intra-industry 
competition, characterized by the 
total number of enterprises and 
monopolistic enterprises; the level 
of protection against inflation, 
determined by the ratio of the 
dynamics of the price level of basic 
products and the wholesale price 
index in the country; the level of 
social tension, characterized by the 
ratio of the average wage to 
industries to a living wage, etc.). 
3. The level of state support for the 
industry (the volume of state 
capital investments, state lending, 
tax benefits, etc.) 
local production of basic building 
materials, energy production per 
1 inhabitant, density of railways 
and roads) 
- demographic characteristics 
(proportion of the region’s 
population in the total population, 
ratio of urban and rural residents, 
share of the employed population, 
skill level) 
- level of development of market 
relations (proportion of state and 
municipal enterprises, number of 
enterprises with foreign investment, 
number of banks, stock exchanges, 
insurance companies, etc.). 
2. Risk level: 
- marketing and production risks 
- environmental risks (specific 
gravity of enterprises with harmful 
emissions exceeding MPE in the 
total number of enterprises in the 
region, radiation background) 
- criminal risks (level of economic 
crimes per 1,000 inhabitants) 
- proportion of construction in 
progress in the total number of 
initiated projects. 
3. Level of state support for the 
region (level of redistribution of 
budget revenues, state lending, tax 
benefits for regional and local taxes) 
 

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100 points or more —  high financial stability; high investment 
attractiveness. Rating A. 
75–95 points —  average financial stability; average investment 
attractiveness. Rating B. 
Up to 70 points —  low financial stability; low investment attractiveness. 
Rating C. 
Thus, after the analysis, it is easy to determine which risk group the 
enterprise falls into based on the assigned rating (Table 8). 
Table 8