Mundarija Kirish To`lov balansi tushunchasi va uning tarkibiy tuzilishi Toʼlov bаlаnsini tаrtibgа solishning nаzаriy kontseptuаl jihаtlаri To`lov balansini makroiqtisodiy

4-jadval

O`zbekistonning to`lov balansi

	Kredit	Debet	Saldo
1. Joriy operatsiyalar hisobi	10719	10833	-114
A. Tovarlar va хizmatlar	10600	10700	-100
a. Tovarlar	9600	8740	860
- eksport va import tovarlari	9600	8740	860
b. Хizmatlar	1000	1960	-960
B. Daromadlar	115	130	-15
1. Chet eldan kelgani	115		115
2. Chet elga to`langani		130	-130
V. Joriy transfertlar	4	3	1
1. Chet eldan olingani	4		4
2. Chet elga to`langani		3	-3
II. Kapital va moliyaviy operatsiyalar hisobi	252	132	120
A. Kapital bo`yicha operatsiyalar hisobi	3	3	0
1. Kapital transfertlar	3	3	0
B. Moliya hisobi	249	129	120
1. To`g`ri investitsiyalar	112	18	-6
1.1 Chet elga		18
1.2 O`zbekiston iqtisodiyotiga	112
2. Portfel investitsiyalar	5	8	-3
3. Boshqa investitsiyalar	132	103	29
3.1. A k t i v l a r	50	93	-43
3.1.1 Kommersiya kreditlari	45	40	5
- eksport uchun kelib tushmagan to`lovlar		40
- oldingi yilgi eksport uchun to`lovlar	45
3.1.2 Ssuda va qarzlar, chetga berilgani	5	53	- 48
- o`zlashtirilgan kreditlar		50
- asosiy qarzning qaytarilgani	5
3.1.3 Naqd pullar va depozitlar		3
3.2 M a j b u r i ya t l a r	82	10	72
3.2.1 Kommersiya kreditlari	25		25
3.2.2 Ssuda va qarzlar, chetdan olingani	55	10	45
- o`zlashtirilgan kreditlar	55
- asosiy qarz qaytarilgani		10
3.1.3 Naqd pullar va depozitlar	2		2
4. Zaxira aktivlari			0
Statistik hatolik		6	-6

To`lov balansining joriy operatsiyalar bo`yicha Saldosi minus 114ga, kapital va moliyaviy operatsiyalar hisobi Saldosi 120 ga teng bo`ldi. Nazariy jihatdan ular birbiriga teng bo`lishi kerak edi. Lekin amaliyotda ko`rsatkichlarning ko`pchiligi baholash usullari bilan aniqlanganligi uchun, ular o`rtasida farq bo`lishi mumkin. Odatda bu farq statistik хatolik deb yuritiladi.

Xulosa va takliflar

Toʼlov balansini tartibga solish boʼyicha nazariya va yondashuvlarning aynan birini reallikka toʼliq mos keladi va uning qoidalaridan toʼlov balansini tartibga solishda amaliy foydalanish mumkin, deb hisoblash qiyin. Chunki, elastik yondashuv qoidalari oʼlaroq, devalьvatsiyaning joriy hisobvaraq balansi holatini yaxshilash vositasi sifatida foydalanish amaliyoti mavjud. Biroq, devalьvatsiyadan muntazam ravishda foydalanish doimo ham kutilgan natijani beravermaydi. Bu oʼrinda kapitallar harakatiga devalьvatsiyaning taʼsirini ham hisobga olish kerak. Kapitallar harakati erkin boʼlmagan sharoitda ayniqsa valyuta kursi dinamikasi va kapitallar oqimi oʼrtasida yetarlicha bogʼliqlik kuzatilmasligi mumkin.

Bundan tashqari, keynscha yondashuv va absorbtsiya kontseptsiyasiga koʼra, toʼlov balansini tartibga solishda davlatning aralashuvi muhim hisoblanadi.

Inflyatsion targetirlash rejimiga oʼtish sharoitida mamlakatdagi narxlar darajasiga valyuta kursi taʼsirini baholab borish zarur. Binobarin valyuta kanalining taʼsiri yuqori boʼlgan sharoitlarda valyuta kursi shakllanishi jarayoniga Markaziy bankning aralashuviga zarurat tugʼiladi. Bu holatda valyuta interventsiyasini amalga oshirish natijasida milliy pul massasida yuzaga kelgan oʼzgarish pul-kredit siyosati maqsadlariga zid kelgan taqdirda uni “tozalash” choralari koʼrilishi kerak. Bu maqsadda Markaziy bankning pul bozori likvidliligiga taʼsir etish uchun rivojlangan instrumentlarga ega boʼlishi muhim sanaladi.

Toʼlov balansiga nisbatan monetar yondashuvda pul bosh rolь oʼynashini hisobga oladigan boʼlsak, raqamli xususiy pullarning vujudga kelishi va uning taʼsiri Markaziy banklar uchun pul-kredit siyosati strategiyasini ishlab chiqish, pulga boʼlgan talabni baholash va prognozlashda hisobga olinishi zarur.

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1^{ )} Muddati o‘tib ketgan to‘lovlarni ham hisoblaganda. ⁾ n-2 – n-1 -yillarda restrukturizasiya qiilingan kreditlarni ham hisoblaganda.