Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

. . . on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe 
The universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose. 
—J.
B.
S.
H
ALDANE
What is the universe doing questioning itself via one of its smallest products? 
—D.
E.
J
ENKINS
,
A
NGLICAN THEOLOGIAN
What is the universe computing? As far as we can tell, it is not producing a single answer to a single 
question....Instead the universe is computing itself. Powered by Standard Model software, the universe 
computes quantum fields, chemicals, bacteria, human beings, stars, and galaxies. As it computes, it maps out 
its own spacetime geometry to the ultimate precision allowed by the laws of physics. Computation is 
existence. 
—S
ETH 
L
LOYD AND 
Y.
J
ACK 
N
G
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Our naive view of the cosmos, dating back to pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the universe 
and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God). The more informed recent view is that, even if the likelihood of 
a star's having a planet with a technology-creating species is very low (for example, one in a million), there are so 
many stars (that is, billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many (billions or trillions) with advanced 
technology. 
This is the view behind SETI—the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence—and is the common informed view 
today. However, there are reasons to doubt the "SETI assumption" that ETI is prevalent. 
First, consider the common SETI view. Common interpretations of the Drake equation (see below) conclude that 
there are many (as in billions) of ETls in the universe, thousands or millions in our galaxy. We have only examined a 
tiny portion of the haystack (the universe), so our failure to date to find the needle (an ETI signal) should not be 
considered discouraging. Our efforts to explore the haystack are scaling up. 
The following diagram from 
Sky & Telescope
illustrates the scope of the SETI project by plotting the capability of 
the varied scanning efforts against three major parameters: distance from Earth, frequency of transmission, and the 
fraction of the sky.
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The plot includes two future systems. The Allen Telescope Array, named after Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen, is 
based on using many small scanning dishes rather than one or a small number of large dishes, with thirty-two of the 
dishes scheduled to be online in 2005.When all of its 350 dishes are operational (projected in 2008), it will be 
equivalent to a 2½-acre dish (10,000 square meters). It will be capable of listening to up to 100 million frequency 
channels simultaneously, and able to cover the entire microwave spectrum. One of its intended tasks will be to scan 
millions of stars in our galaxy. The project relies on intelligent computation that can extract highly accurate signals 
from many low-cost dishes.
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Ohio State University is building the Omnidirectional Search System, which relies on intelligent computation to 
interpret signals from a large array of simple antennas. Using principles of interferometry (the study of how signals 
interfere with each other), a high-resolution image of the entire sky can be computed from the antenna data.
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Other 
projects are expanding the range of electromagnetic frequency, for example, to explore the infrared and optical 
ranges.
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There are six other parameters in addition to the three shown in the chart on the previous page—for example, 
polarization (the plane of the wavefront in relation to the direction of the electromagnetic waves). One of the 

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conclusions we can draw from the above graph is that only very thin slices of this nine-dimensional "parameter space" 
have been explored by SETI. So, the reasoning goes, we should not be surprised that we have not yet uncovered 
evidence of an ETI. 
However, we are not just searching for a single needle. Based on the law of accelerating returns, once an ETI 
reaches primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before it reaches the vast capabilities I've 
projected for the twenty-second century here on Earth. Russian astronomer N. S. Kardashev describes a "type II" 
civilization as one that has harnessed the power of its star for communication using electromagnetic radiation (about 4 
°
10
26
watts, based on our sun).
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According to my projections (see chapter 3), our civilization will reach that level by 
the twenty-second century. Given that the level of technological development of the many civilizations projected by 
many SETI theorists should be spread out over vast periods of time, there should be many greatly ahead of us. So there 
should be many type II civilizations. Indeed, there has been sufficient time for some of these civilizations to have 
colonized their galaxies and achieve Kardashev's type III: a civilization that has harnessed the energy of its galaxy 
(about 4 
°
10
37
watts, based on our galaxy). Even a single advanced civilization should be emitting billions or trillions 
of "needles"—that is, transmissions representing a vast number of points in the SETI parameter space as artifacts and 
side effects of its myriad information processes. Even with the thin slices of the parameter space scanned by the SETI 
project to date, it would be hard to miss a type II civilization, let alone a type III. If we then factor in the expectation 
that there should be a vast number of these advanced civilizations, it is odd that we haven't noticed them. That's the 
Fermi Paradox.