Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

f
p
= 0.5), that each of these stars has an 
average of two planets able to sustain life (
n
e
= 2), that on half of these planets life has actually evolved (
f
l
= 0.5), that 
half of these planets has evolved intelligent life (
f
i
= 0.5), that half of these are radio-capable (
f
c
= 0.5), and that the 
average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for one million years (
f
L
= 10
–4
), the Drake equation tells us 
that there are 1,250,000 radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy. For example, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, 
Seth Shostak, estimates that there are between ten thousand and one million planets in the Milky Way containing a 
radio-broadcasting civilization.
70
Carl Sagan estimated around a million in the galaxy, and Drake estimated around ten 
thousand.
71
But the parameters above are arguably very high. If we make more conservative assumptions on the difficulty of 
evolving life—and intelligent life in particular—we get a very different outcome. If we assume that 50 percent of the 
stars have planets (
f
p
= 0.5), that only one tenth of these stars have planets able to sustain life (
n
e
= 0.1 based on the 
observation that life-supporting conditions are not that prevalent), that on 1 percent of these planets life has actually 
evolved (
f
l
= 0.01 based on the difficulty of life starting on a planet), that 5 percent of these life-evolving planets have 
evolved intelligent life (
f
i
= 0.05, based on the very long period of time this took on Earth), that half of these are radio-
capable (
f
c
= 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for ten thousand years (
f
L
= 10
–
6
), the Drake equation tells us that there is about one (1.25 to be exact) radio-capable civilization in the Milky Way. 
And we already know of one. 
In the end, it is difficult to make a strong argument for or against ETI based on this equation. If the Drake formula 
tells us anything, it is the extreme uncertainty of our estimates. What we do know for now, however, is that the cosmos 
appears silent—that is, we've detected no convincing evidence of ETI transmissions. The assumption behind SETI is 
that life—and intelligent life—is so prevalent that there must be millions if not billions of radio-capable civilizations in 
the universe (or at least within our light sphere, which refers to radio-broadcasting civilizations that were sending out 
radio waves early enough to reach Earth by today). Not a single one of them, however, has made itself noticeable to 

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our SETI efforts thus far. So let's consider the basic SETI assumption regarding the number of radio-capable 
civilizations from the perspective of the law of accelerating returns. As we have discussed, an evolutionary process 
inherently accelerates. Moreover, the evolution of technology is far faster than the relatively slow evolutionary process 
that gives rise to a technology-creating species in the first place. In our own case we went from a pre-electricity, 
computerless society that used horses as its fastest land-based transportation to the sophisticated computational and 
communications technologies we have today in only two hundred years. My projections show, as noted above, that 
within another century we will multiply our intelligence by trillions of trillions. So only three hundred years will have 
been necessary to take us from the early stirrings of primitive mechanical technologies to a vast expansion of our 
intelligence and ability to communicate. Thus, once a species creates electronics and sufficiently advanced technology 
to beam radio transmissions, it is only a matter of a modest number of centuries for it to vastly expand the powers of 
its intelligence. 
The three centuries this will have taken on Earth is an extremely brief period of time on a cosmological scale, 
given that the age of the universe is estimated at thirteen to fourteen billion years.
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My model implies that once a 348 
civilization achieves our own level of radio transmission, it takes no more than a century—two at the most—to achieve 
a type II civilization. If we accept the underlying SETI assumption that there are many thousands if not millions of 
radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy—and therefore billions within our light sphere in the universe—these 
civilizations must exist in different stages over billions of years of development. Some would be behind us, and some 
would be ahead. It is not credible that every single one of the civilizations that are more advanced than us is going to 
be only a few decades ahead. Most of those that are ahead of us would be ahead by millions, if not billions, of years. 
Yet since a period of only a few centuries is sufficient to progress from mechanical technology to the vast 
explosion of intelligence and communication of the Singularity, under the SETI assumption there should be billions of 
civilizations in our light sphere (thousands or millions in our galaxy) whose technology is ahead of ours to an 
unimaginable degree. In at least some discussions of the SETI project, we see the same kind of linear thinking that 
permeates every other field, assumptions that civilizations will reach our level of technology, and that technology will 
progress from that point very gradually for thousands if not millions of years. Yet the jump from the first stirrings of 
radio to powers that go beyond a mere type II civilization takes only a few hundred years. So the skies should be 
ablaze with intelligent transmissions. 
Yet the skies are quiet. It is odd and intriguing that we find the cosmos so silent. As Enrico Fermi asked in the 
summer of 1950, "Where is everybody?"
73
A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its 
transmissions to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are all the ETIs so shy? 
There have been attempts to respond to the so-called Fermi Paradox (which, granted, is a paradox only if one 
accepts the optimistic parameters that most observers apply to the Drake equation). One common response is that a 
civilization may obliterate itself once it reaches radio capability. This explanation might be acceptable if we were 
talking about only a few such civilizations, but with the common SETI assumptions implying billions of them, it is not 
credible to believe that everyone of them destroyed itself. 
Other arguments run along this same line. Perhaps "they" have decided not to disturb us (given how primitive we 
are) and are just watching us quietly (an ethical guideline that will be familiar to 
Star Trek
fans). Again, it is hard to 
believe that every such civilization out of the billions that should exist has made the same decision. Or, perhaps, they 
have moved on to more capable communication paradigms. I do believe that more capable communication methods 
than electromagnetic waves—even very high-frequency ones—are likely to be feasible and that an advanced 
civilization (such as we will become over the next century) is likely to discover and exploit them. But it is very 
unlikely that there would be absolutely no role left for electromagnetic waves, even as a by-product of other 
technological processes, in any of these many millions of civilizations. 
Incidentally, this is not an argument against the value of the SETI project, which should have high priority, 
because the negative finding is no less important than a positive result. 

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