Independent work: choice, necessity, and the gig economy

in the United States while staying flat in the EU-15
SOURCE: BLS; Freelancers Union; Katz and Krueger, 
The rise and nature of alternative work arrangements in the United States, 1995–2005
; Kelly Services; 
Eurostat; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1 Temporary contractors, agency, contract, and on-call minus self-employed.
2 Employed persons not in self- or temporary employment.
Employed persons
million
-0.1
-0.4
7.8
7
2008
142
2005
16
6
145
15
1995
125
2015
12
15
140
9
149
2011
14
5
10
25
175
26
2011
2015
172
25
21
177
22
25
2008
2005
169
20
21
-0.1
0.1
-0.5
Compound 
annual 
growth rate,
2008–15
%
Self-employed
Temporary and contract workers
1
Permanent
2
United States
EU-15
Compound 
annual 
growth rate,
2008–15
%

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71
McKinsey Global Institute
Independent work: Choice, necessity, and the gig economy
future and think it is likely that they will do this. Even among traditional workers, 12 percent 
would like to be primary independent earners. Among those not currently working, 
15 percent would like the same. Those not currently working express the least confidence in 
being able to pursue this desire, with only six in ten saying it was somewhat likely. 
Altogether, if everyone had the opportunity to work in the way they prefer, the primary 
independent workforce could eventually number up to 135 million people across the United 
States and the EU-15.
66
 Out of 71 million primary independent earners today, 48 million 
would retain that status, while ten million would switch to a traditional primary job and 
continue with supplemental independent earning, and 13 million would rather completely 
stop doing any independent work or find it likely they would stop. Additionally, 29 million 
current supplemental earners would convert their activity into their primary source of 
income. Finally, 58 million of the total 425 million traditional workers and people who do not 
currently work would like to become primary independent earners as well (Exhibit 23). This 
is obviously not to say that this entire population would enjoy independent work and would 
continue that way over the long term; it merely counts those who report that they would like 
to try it.
If all of our survey respondents were able to pursue their stated desires, our results indicate 
that the independent workforce could grow from around 27 percent of the US working-
age population today to as much as 30 to 50 percent in the future.
67
 In the United States, 
this corresponds to 76 million to 129 million individuals. In the EU-15, the independent 
workforce could grow from 25 percent of the working-age population to as much as 27 to 
42 percent. The total number of primary and supplemental independent workers could grow 
to as many as 89 million to 138 million in the EU-15. Note that the low end of each range is 
a more conservative estimate that includes only respondents who stated they were “very 
likely” to pursue their desired working style. The high number in each range indicates the 
full potential; it comprises respondents who reported being “somewhat likely” to pursue 
their aspirations as well as those who are “very likely.” In addition, all of these figures 
subtract the share of current independent workers who stated a preference for moving into 
traditional jobs.
It is important to note, however, that while we have calculated this growth potential based 
on the stated aspirations of respondents, these numbers should not be read as actual 
projections. As we discuss in the next chapter, many hurdles may prevent individuals from 
pursuing independent work. Additionally, these results only hold with all else remaining 
equal; changes to automation levels or the health of the economy have not been included 
in this analysis. Nonetheless, it is clear from our survey that millions find the prospect of 
independent work appealing, and their desire to try it may fuel its growth. 
Other studies have similarly highlighted growth potential. In a 2015 Kelly Services survey, for 
example, up to 24 percent of traditional workers said they were somewhat or very likely to 
consider working as free agents.
68
 LinkedIn has seen the number of independent workers 
on its platform grow more than 40 percent in the past five years, a trend that spurred 
the creation of a dedicated platform for these workers, ProFinder.
69
 Intuit projects that 
contingent workers will make up more than 40 percent of the US workforce by 2020.
70
66
  Throughout this discussion, the EU-15 share was calculated by extrapolating the results from our five 
survey countries.
67
  This estimate includes only independent earning from providing labor services. It excludes selling goods and 
renting assets. 
68
  Teresa Carroll, 
Agents of change: Independent workers are reshaping the workforce
, Kelly Services, 
September 2015. Survey covered 5,200 workers across 13 countries in North America, Europe, and 
Asia Pacific.
69
  Kathleen Chaykowski, “Meet Reid Hoffman’s pet project: LinkedIn’s marketplace for freelancers,” 
Forbes
, 
August 16, 2016. 
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Intuit 2020 report: Twenty trends that will shape the next decade
, Intuit, October 2010.