I n t h I s c h a p t e r y o u w I l L

An Essay on the Princi-
ple of Population as It Affects
the Future Improvement of
Society,
Malthus offered what
may be histor y’s most chilling forecast. Malthus argued that
an ever increasing population would continually strain soci-
ety’s ability to provide for itself. As a result, mankind was
doomed to forever live in pover ty.
Malthus’s logic was ver y simple. He began by noting
that “food is necessar y to the existence of man” and that
“the passion between the sexes is necessar y and will
remain nearly in its present state.” He concluded that “the
power of population is infinitely greater than the power in the
ear th to produce subsistence for man.” According to
Malthus, the only check on population growth was “miser y
and vice.” Attempts by charities or governments to alleviate
pover ty were counterproductive, he argued, because they
merely allowed the poor to have more children, placing even
greater strains on society’s productive capabilities.
For tunately, Malthus’s dire forecast was far off the
mark. Although the world population has increased about
sixfold over the past two centuries, living standards around
the world are on average much
higher. As a result of economic
growth, chronic hunger and malnu-
trition are less common now than
they were in Malthus’s day.
Famines occur from time to time,
but they are more often the result
of an unequal income distribution
or political instability than an inad-
equate production of food.
Where did Malthus go wrong?
He failed to appreciate that growth
in mankind’s ingenuity would
exceed growth in population. New
ideas about how to produce and even the kinds of goods to
produce have led to greater prosperity than Malthus—or
anyone else of his era—ever imagined. Pesticides, fer tiliz-
ers, mechanized farm equipment, and new crop varieties
have allowed each farmer to feed ever greater numbers of
people. The wealth-enhancing effects of technological
progress have exceeded whatever wealth-diminishing
effects might be attributed to population growth.
Indeed, some economists now go so far as to suggest
that population growth may even have helped mankind
achieve higher standards of living. If there are more people,
then there are more scientists, inventors, and engineers to
contribute to technological progress, which benefits ever y-
one. Perhaps world population growth, rather than being a
source of economic deprivation as Malthus predicted, has
actually been an engine of technological progress and eco-
nomic prosperity.
T
HOMAS
M
ALTHUS
F Y I
Thomas
Malthus on
Population
Growth

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C H A P T E R 2 4
P R O D U C T I O N A N D G R O W T H
5 4 5
C A S E S T U D Y
THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN
From 1959 to 1973, productivity, as measured by output per hour worked in
U.S. businesses, grew at a rate of 3.2 percent per year. From 1973 to 1998, pro-
ductivity grew by only 1.3 percent per year. Not surprisingly, this slowdown in
productivity growth has been reflected in reduced growth in real wages and
family incomes. It is also reflected in a general sense of economic anxiety.
freedom, the goal of reduced population growth is accomplished less directly by
increasing awareness of birth control techniques.
The final way in which a country can influence population growth is to apply
one of the 
Ten Principles of Economics:
People respond to incentives. Bearing a child,
like any decision, has an opportunity cost. When the opportunity cost rises, people
will choose to have smaller families. In particular, women with the opportunity to
receive good education and desirable employment tend to want fewer children
than those with fewer opportunities outside the home. Hence, policies that foster
equal treatment of women are one way for less developed economies to reduce the
rate of population growth.
R E S E A R C H A N D D E V E L O P M E N T
The primary reason that living standards are higher today than they were a cen-
tury ago is that technological knowledge has advanced. The telephone, the tran-
sistor, the computer, and the internal combustion engine are among the thousands
of innovations that have improved the ability to produce goods and services.
Although most technological advance comes from private research by firms
and individual inventors, there is also a public interest in promoting these efforts.
To a large extent, knowledge is a