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Stability in Kuwait is key to Afghan stability
Al-Ebraheem 6 (Yousef, Middle East Quarterly 3(3), Sept 2006, p. 17)IM
Kuwait has an estimated oil reserve of more than 94 billion barrels, translating into a per citizen oil wealth of 142,000 barrels, which at today's levels is worth $2.1 million per person. Nonetheless, this wealth is threatened by a range of factors, including high population growth (leading to a decline in per capita wealth), non-OPEC oil discoveries, advancement of oil extraction technology, and the uncertainty surrounding demand for oil, especially from the industrial world. The following major factors could affect the financial situation over the next decade: Political stability. Uncertainty and tension in the Gulf region has an immediate impact on Kuwait's financial situation. In October 1994, Saddam Husayn moved Republican Guards toward the Kuwaiti border, and the ensuing mini-crisis cost Kuwait around $500 million (a figure that includes payments to mobilize allied troops). Further, political problems affect capital outflow, domestic economic activity, and the flow of oil. Hence, Kuwait’s financial situation has a substantial effect on issues like the future of Iraq, relations with Iran, and the Afghani peace process. Oil revenues. Most energy forecast studies predict that oil prices will be stable at the $15 per barrel level in the short term.9 They also predict that world demand for oil, especially in Asia, will continue to increase. But these studies are narrowly based on quantitative models and virtually ignore political factors, thus making them of questionable value.
Kuwait Stability Turns Iran/Regional Prolif
Stability in Kuwait is key to prevent Iranian proliferation
AP 10 (Associated Press, Jan 31 2010, http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117487§ionid=351020104)IM
US military officials told AP on condition of anonymity that Washington has taken silent steps to increase the capability of land-based Patriot missiles on the territory of some of its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf region. Patriot missile systems were originally deployed to the Persian Gulf region to target aircrafts and shoot down missiles before they reach their target. According to the officials, who were expounding on the classified information in a Sunday interview, the US Navy is also upgrading the presence of ships capable of intercepting missiles. The officials claimed that details are kept secret, because a number of Arab states fear Iran's military capabilities, but at the same time, are cautious about acknowledging their cooperation with the US. Arab states have a long history of housing US military bases and combat equipments. Kuwait plays host to US Patriots, which provide a valuable disincentive to a nuclear Iran, while the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are home to the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters. Qatar is also known to have a modernized US air operations center that has played a central role in the US wars on Iraq and Afghanistan. Central Command Chief David Petraeus, who is responsible for US military operations across the Middle East, in early January warned of a series of 'contingency plans' in dealing with Iran's refusal to accept Western demands over its nuclear program. "It would be almost literally irresponsible if CENTCOM were not to have been thinking about the various 'what ifs' and to make plans for a whole variety of different contingencies," said Petraeus in a break from the Obama administration's oft-stated claims of diplomacy with Tehran. Petraeus has repeatedly asserted in his recent public speeches that the refurbishment of Patriot missiles is directly linked to US plans about Iran. "Other countries have certainly increased their Patriots, a whole host of different systems; Aegis ballistic missile cruisers are in the Gulf at all times now," Petraeus added. The weapons will have to be removed if conditions in Kuwait and surrounding countries were to take a turn for the worse. Equipped with advanced radar systems, the Aegis ships features a missile known as the SM-3, which came to the fore in February 2008 when it was used to shoot down a defective US satellite in space. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Robert Gates has spoken fervently of a new approach to missile systems, both in Europe and the Persian Gulf. "I don't want to get into it in too much detail," Gates had said earlier in September, "but the reality is we are working both on a bilateral and a multilateral basis in the Gulf to establish the same kind of regional missile defense that would deter regional proliferation and protect our facilities out there as well as our friends and allies." The buildup comes at a critical time in Tehran-Washington affairs. On Thursday, the US Senate passed a bill advocating tough sanctions on any entity, individual, company or even country, which deals in refined petroleum with Iran.
Kuwait Stability Turns Nukes/Regional Instability
Kuwait stability key to prevent nuclear war and regional instability
Kuwait Times 10 (June 27 2010, http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTAwMjUxMDcwMA==)IM
KUWAIT: A newly released international index has classified Kuwait among the countries given a 'warning' status of stability for the second year running. The Failed State Index (FSI) divides countries into four categories - Alert, Warning, Moderate, and Sustainable. Kuwait remained at 125th place in the index for the second year in a row, despite minor changes in some of the indicators forming the index. The stability of Kuwait has stunning effects on the surrounding region – political turmoil there easily spreads across the Middle East, exploiting ethnic divisions, state rivalries and spurring conflict. In an increasingly nuclear age and absent deterrent U.S. forces the resulting conflict throughout the Middle East could involve nuclear weapons. The classification looks at 12 different indicators to determine the stability of the 177 countries inc luded in the index, which is published by the US-based Foreign Policy magazine. The indicators are divided into three groups, social, economic, and political. The social indicators include Mounting Demographic Pressures, Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies, Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia, and Chronic and Sustained Human Flight. The economic indicators are Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines, and Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline.
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