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Japan’s proliferation would trigger a Northeast Asia nuclear crisis.
Oros 3 (Andrew, ass prof of poli sci & internat’l studies @ WA College, Stimson Center, Dec 3) ET
Japan should dare follow the brinksmanship strategy of North Korea. Even the proponents of Japan’s nuclear armament acknowledge that Japan would not be able to develop nuclear weapons without US approval and cooperation. From a strategic perspective, the Japanese government in the past has quietly re-examined the nuclear option at times of fundamental strategic shifts in the international system.34 The results of these strategic calculations are noteworthy. All such examinations have reached the same conclusion: Japan’s possession of its own nuclear arsenal had little, if any strategic merit. The key points in the calculations that led to this conclusion are as follows: 1) Japan’s possession of nuclear weapons would undermine Japan’s national security by triggering an arms race in Northeast Asia, prompting the two Koreas and Taiwan to accelerate their nuclear development programs or to go nuclear as well—ultimately undermining regional and global security 2) Nuclear armament would not be appropriate for Japan because this country is inherently vulnerable to a nuclear attack, considering the fact that it is an island country where a large part of its population lives in a limited number of densely populated areas and thus lacks strategic depth 3) Japan is surrounded by seas and does not have sufficient ground for the use of tactical nuclear weapons 4) The threat of Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons can be deterred by US extended deterrence as long as it remains effective 5) Japan would never allow North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, and therefore, the North’s nuclear weapons do not, and will not, constitute the basis for calculating Japan’s future national security strategy 6) Japan’s nuclear option could motivate a number of other countries to pursue nuclear proliferation while only bringing minimal military benefit to Japan.
Japan Rearm Turns Asian Arms Race
Japanese rearmament would trigger an Asian arms race and widespread prolif
US News & World Report 3 (1.27.3, US News & World Report, p. 33) ET
Faced with a nuclear breakout by a hostile regime, Japan reconsiders its antinuclear taboos, fields a larger missile force of its own, and plunges into developing a shield against incoming missiles with the United States. South Korea, with one eye on the North and the other on Japan, follows suit. China reacts with more nukes and missiles of its own. Taiwan, outgunned, opts for more missiles and, perhaps, nuclear bombs. A nervous Russia shifts nuclear and conventional forces for defense against its old rivals, China and Japan. India, a foe of China, expands its nuclear forces, a step that causes Pakistan to do likewise. An Asian arms race snaps into high gear. No wonder that one former U.S. official who helped guide North Korea policy warns of a new "domino effect" in Asia.
Proliferation in Asia quickly escalates to global nuclear war
Cirincione 2k (Foreign Policy, 3.22.2) ET
The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already building more quickly than anywhere else in the world. If a nuclear breakout takes place in Asia, then the international arms control agreements that have been painstakingly negotiated over the past 40 years will crumble. Moreover, the United States could find itself embroiled in its fourth war on the Asian continent in six decades--a costly rebuke to those who seek the safety of Fortress America by hiding behind national missile defenses. Consider what is already happening: North Korea continues to play guessing games with its nuclear and missile programs; South Korea wants its own missiles to match Pyongyang's; India and Pakistan shoot across borders while running a slow-motion nuclear arms race; China modernizes its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with Taiwan and the United States; Japan's vice defense minister is forced to resign after extolling the benefits of nuclear weapons; and Russia--whose Far East nuclear deployments alone make it the largest Asian nuclear power--struggles to maintain territorial coherence. Five of these states have nuclear weapons; the others are capable of constructing them. Like neutrons firing from a split atom, one nation's actions can trigger reactions throughout the region, which in turn, stimulate additional actions. These nations form an interlocking Asian nuclear reaction chain that vibrates dangerously with each new development. If the frequency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase, critical decisions taken by any one of these governments could cascade into the second great wave of nuclear-weapon proliferation, bringing regional and global economic and political instability and, perhaps, the first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.
***DEMOCRACY***
Democracy Solves Economy
Democracy exponentially increases economic capabilities
Davis and Trebilcock 8 [Kevin E, Michael J, Fall, The American Journal of Comparative Law , 56 Am. J. Comp. L. 895, Lexis]
The effects of improved governance on income in the long run are found to be very large, with an estimated 400 percent improvement in per capita income associated with an improvement in governance by one standard deviation, and similar improvements in reducing child mortality and illiteracy. To illustrate, an improvement in the rule of law by one standard deviation from the current levels in Ukraine to those "middling levels prevailing in South Africa would lead to a fourfold increase in per capita income in the long run. A larger increase in the quality of the rule of law (by two standard deviations) in Ukraine (or in other countries in the former Soviet Union), to the much higher level in Slovenia or Spain, would further multiply this income per capita increase. Similar results emerge from other governance dimensions: a mere one standard deviation improvement in voice and accountability from the low level of Venezuela to that of South Korea, or in control of corruption from the low level of Indonesia to the middling level of Mexico, or from the level of Mexico to that of Costa Rica, would also be associated with an estimated fourfold increase in per capita incomes, as well as similar improvements in reducing child mortality by 75 percent and major gains in literacy. n180
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