|
Japanese instability bad- pivotal post for US asian presence, key to US military, and collapse risks global instability
Kapila 6/7 (Subhash, international relations and strategic affairs analyst, South Asia Analysis Group, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org//papers39/paper3848.html paper no. 3848) ET
Japan is no ordinary nation in Asia. It has a unique historical past in strategic terms. It also has a unique strategic future both in terms of the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty and also should it adopt an independent strategic posture based on its innate national strengths. In terms of the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty (50th Anniversary this year). Japan is the pivot of the United States security architecture in East Asia even now despite significant changes in US-China relations and the overall power-balance in North-East Asia more specifically. In global terms, Japan counts more politically and economically than strategically. Its global significance arises from the fact that it is ‘global funder’ of many economic and social reconstruction projects. Here also Japan figures significantly in the United States calculus as additionally Japan virtually underwrites the United States forward military presence in East-Asia and contributes financially to United States military operations to offset her Constitutional limitations of not contributing troops e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Indian Ocean maritime security etc. With such strategic, political and economic salience, when political instability hits Japan, the strategic impact of such instability becomes a matter of serious concern both in regional and global terms. It should be a graver concern for the United States. Early this month, Japan witnessed the installation of the fifth Japanese Prime Minister in four years. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama who assumed office on 16 September 2009 after leading the Democratic Party to victory in General Elections had to step down on 4 June 2010. The major reason was his inability to honor his election pledge on the relocation of the US Marine Aviation Base at Futema on Okinawa Island. Naato Kan has taken over as the new Prime Minister, He was the Deputy Prime Minister and more importantly the Finance Minister in the outgoing Cabinet. Noted as pragmatic, straight-talking and a decisive politician. Unlike his predecessors, Prime Minister Kan is the first Japanese Prime Minister who does not belong to any of Japan’s political dynasties or the elitist bureaucracy. As a civil activist he has risen from the grassroots and has been the founder-member of the Democratic Party. Prime Minister Kan inherits all the security and economic challenges that the previous Prime Minister had faced and in particular the resolution of the US-Japan security related debate over Futema Marine Air Base. Japan therefore, is in for challenging times and moreso against the backdrop of the changing strategic landscape in North East Asia. Japan is emerging more like the Italy of East Asia with frequent changes in Prime Ministers. While Japan is fortunate that its powerful civilian bureaucracy ensures a continuity in policies the political instability if it persists calls for strategic assessment of its impact.
Japan Rearm Turns NPT
Japanese rearm would cause worldwide prolif and collapses NPT
Shimbun 02 (Asahi, 7/9/2) ET
If Japan becomes a nuclear power despite its history as a victim of nuclear attack, the NPT will effectively collapse. It would certainly not be in the nation's interest, nor would it win world support, to lead the way in turning the world into a nuclear jungle.
NPT collapse leads to extinction
Akiba 03 (Tadatoshi, Mayor of Hiroshima, Mayors Speeche @ MPI Strat meeting, Apr 25, 3 http://www.city.hiroshima.jp/shimin/heiwa/mpi-speech.html) ET
And yet, the NPT has long been the only brake limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Its collapse would destroy any chance of nuclear disarmament or abolition, leading in all likelihood to the actual use of a nuclear weapon. One use of such a weapon could, in turn, escalate to a nuclear war and, perhaps, the extinction of the entire human species.
Japanese proliferation will collapse the NPT
Halperin 99 (Morton, Sr fellow @ council on Foreign rel, Nautilus Institute, 7.20.99,
http://www.nautilus.org/nukepolicy/Halperin/index.html) ET
Moreover, Japan's development of nuclear weapons would certainly signal and accelerate the collapse of the NPT process. No one should take for granted the Japanese commitment over the long run to refrain from developing nuclear weapons.
Japan Rearm Turns India/Pakistan War
Japanese rearm leads to india pakistan arms race
Business Week 03 (Business Week, acclaimed new source, 1.20.3) ET
If Japan could get beyond the hurdles, it likely wouldn't need long to develop a bomb. It has five tons of plutonium stored in the nuclear research center of Tokai-mura, north of Tokyo, and its scientists know how to convert it to weapons-grade material. Hideyuki Ban, director of the nonprofit Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, says Japan could build a nuclear bomb within months. And its civilian rocket and satellite launching system could easily be converted to military use. Japan also has superbly equipped land, sea, and air forces that could deliver medium-range nukes to North Korea. But if Japan decides to build its own nukes, get ready for an Asian arms race. China would likely want to boost its arsenal, which would prompt India to develop more nuclear weapons, which would spur Pakistan to do the same -- and on and on into an ever more perilous future.
India/Pakistan arms race leads to nuclear war
Dallas Morning News 4 (Dallas Morning News, works with Fox News, acclaimed news source, 11.8.4) ET]
Yet Indians aren't disadvantaged at the ballot, and they showed it by tossing out Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party. The new administration probably will be a coalition dominated by the Congress Party, led by Sonia Gandhi of the Gandhi political dynasty.The new administration should retain the best of the old _ detente with Pakistan and China, openness to trade and investment, and cooperation in the war against Islamist terrorism. The detente is important to avoid a dangerous and debilitating nuclear arms race, which easily could deteriorate into nuclear war. The free-market strategy is necessary to create jobs for India's deep ranks of unemployed. And the defense cooperation is essential to defeat the Islamists, who have both India and the United States in their sights.
Most dangerous route to extinction
Washington Times 1(Washington times, 7.8.1) ET
The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan.It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
