China DAs
China DAs 1
**Containment DA 2
Containment DA Shell (1/2) 3
Containment Link - Asia 8
Containment Good – Checks Expansion 13
Containment Good - SCS 17
Containment Good – Expansion Goes Global 20
**Aff Answers 28
Reductions Good – Peaceful Rise 30
**Taiwan Impacts 47
AT: Taiwan Goes Nuclear 50
**Nationalism DA 54
**Aff Answers 92
Hu Reform: Won’t Pass 93
SCO DA Shell 107
SCO Good – Separatism, Sino/Indo/Russian Relations 120
**Pan K 128
**Containment DA
Containment DA Shell (1/2)
US containment strategies are dissuading China from pursuing hegemonic aspirations
Lam 10 (Willy, Adjunct Professor of China studies at Akita International University, Japan, and at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Bejing Sees shift in Geopolitics, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36120) MAH
There are indications, however, that the Hu leadership’s assessment of China’s unprecedented power projection has been less than satisfactory – and that the foreign-policy establishment has at least temporary switched back to a more moderate if not conciliatory stance. For example, Beijing has so far not announced specific punitive measures against U.S. corporations. And while military-to-military exchanges have been suspended, the Foreign Ministry last month allowed the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to make a port call on Hong Kong (Wall Street Journal, February 19; AFP, February 11). More significantly, senior officials have sought to reassure the global community that China is not harboring “hegemonic” aspirations. On his recent European tour, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi reiterated the familiar doctrine that China’s rise will not upset the global order. “The logic that ‘a strong country will become hegemonic’ is contrary to China’s history,” Yang said. “This is also against the intention of the Chinese people.” Citing Confucius’ famous dictum, Yang added that “‘maintaining harmony in the midst of differences’ is a value much treasured by the Chinese people” (China Daily, February 8; China News Service, February 6). A likely factor behind the apparent softening of Beijing’s diplomatic gambit could be fears of a backlash from countries that have been burnt by the fire-spitting dragon. General Yang Yi has warned of the danger of the emergence of an “anti-China coalition” in the West. “Some Western nations may adopt the formula of ‘making individual moves to produce the effect of concerted action’ – and join the ‘contain China’ camp one after the other,” he said. Under this scenario, the well-known strategist added, “[anti-China] measures may come one after the other the rest of the year.” A late February commentary by the Beijing-run Hong Kong journal Bauhinia also drew attention to the possible worsening of the international climate this year. The monthly magazine noted that Western countries’ dependence on China might lessen in the wake of the global economic recovery. “It is possible the West will put more pressure on China over issues such as Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, the value of the Renminbi as well as trade protectionism,” the commentary said. “Forces calling for the ‘containment of China’ may also rear their head” (China News Service, February 27; Xinhuatimes.net, February 4).
Strong US military presence prevents Chinese hegemony and expansionism
Sutter 2007
(Robert Sutter, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, “Does China Seek to Dominate Asia and Reduce US influence as a Regional Power?”, Carnegie Debates, April 20, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Sutter_paper.pdf)
The main findings of this work are: ·
China is rising in influence in Asia, the part of the world where China always has exerted greatest influence;
but China also has major limitations and weaknesses and has
a long way to go to compete for regional leadership. ·
The power and interests of the United States and most Asian governments work against China ever achieving dominance in Asia. ·
The US image in Asia has declined in recent years and US foreign policy continues to be widely criticized.
However, US ability and willingness to serve as Asia’s security guarantor and its vital economic partner
remain strong and provide a solid foundation for continued US leadership in the region.
Overall US influence in the region has not declined, according to every Asian official interviewed in 2006. ·
Most Asian governments maneuver and hedge against China’s rise, and they find a strong US presence in Asia fundamentally important and reassuring.
Containment DA Shell (2/2)
China’s expansion causes a war over Taiwan which escalates to nuclear war
Straits Times, 00 [“Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan,” Jun 25, LN]
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into
a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable.
Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -- horror of horrors --
raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China were to retaliate,
east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted,
Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications
on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities.
Beijing also
seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said
military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation. There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.
