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Reforms Key – Nationalism, Instability
Failure of reforms creates internal instability and leads to expansionism.
Krawitz 10 (Howard M., “China’s trade opening and implications for regional stability” Strategic Forum, page 3) MKB
Ongoing debate holds that as economic power gives China the means to build military might, it will encourage military adventurism and feed the new nationalism already on the rise in China. Recent boosts in Chinese military spending hint this may already be happening. This danger cannot be ignored. China’s leaders are walking a tightrope. WTO-man- dated changes and reform policy failures could engender widespread domestic discontent, nationwide strikes, riots, and other serious social disorder. Leaders, believing themselves in danger of losing control or of being marginal- ized by economic forces and social changes, might try to redirect domestic anger by rekindling Chinese xenophobic sentiments and turning to foreign adventurism as a means of recapturing power and reestablishing primacy. The new breed of Chinese capitalist could become the new breed of Chinese ultranationalist, equating wealth and power with the right to erase past national shame by establishing and enforcing a “Beijing Doctrine” in Asia. Or China might just interpret its own rise in terms of its neighbors’ declines and simply push to see what it could get away with.
Hu Agenda – Nationalist Support Key
Princelings are key to China policymaker’s agenda
Li 8 (Cheng, director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, China’s fifth generation: is diversity a source of strength or weakness, http://www.nbr.org/publications/asia_policy/Free/Asia_Policy_6_Li.pdf) MAH
Chinas decisionmakers are by no means a monolithic group of elites who share the same views, values, and visions; nor are they always engaged in a ferocious zero-sum struggle for power in which the winner takes all. The grolving diversity within Chinas leadership and the dynamic interdependence among competing factions are particularly evident in the fifth generation. 'Ihe fact that the two most powerful camps in the fifth generation-tuanpai and princelings-have been allotted an equal number of seats in Chinas supreme decisionmaking organs indicates the intensity of factional competition. Yet these competing factions are willing to cooperate, partly because they are in the same boat and partly because their expertise and leadership skills are complementary Consequently negotiation, compromise, consensus-building, and behind-the-scenes lobbying will likely occur more often in the future. 'Ihe emerging bipartisan balance of power will further contribute to the diversity of outlooks and stances on major issues, such as economic globalization, social justice, political democratization, and environmental protection.
Nationalist Backlash = Collapse
The Party must appeal to nationalist sentiment to survive, going against nationalism would collapse the Party
Bandow 2007
(Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, “China: Fragile Superpower”, Antiwar.com, September 8, http://original.antiwar.com/doug-bandow/2007/09/07/china-fragile-superpower/)
To this challenging economic environment must be added an even more difficult political environment. Shirk persuasively contends that Beijing’s actions today must be understood in the context of the Tiananmen Square crisis. She explains: “For more than six weeks, millions of students demonstrated for democracy in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and 132 other cities in every Chinese province. The Communist Party leadership split over how to deal with the demonstrations. And the People’s Republic just barely survived.” However, there is no more important goal for today’s communist gerontocracy than survival. As a result, the regime’s leadership is determined to avoid public splits, suppress social unrest, and ensure military support. This doesn’t mean that there are no political differences: “Marxist critics of Western economic and market practices have launched a fierce onslaught against the [economic] reforms, blaming them for inequality, social unrest, and corruption. The critiques appear to have some official sponsorship.” Moreover, fear of unrest has made Chinese officialdom unusually sensitive to public attitudes. This, in turn, has resulted in ever stronger nationalistic upsurges in Chinese society: “The leaders recognize that popular nationalism is intensifying as the country grows stronger. In fact, they have been largely responsible for the trend. In schools and the mass media, they have promoted nationalistic themes as a way to bolster the legitimacy of the Communist Party, now that almost no one believes in Communist ideology anymore.”
Domestic Problems = Lashout
Domestic problems lead to Chinese adventurism
Shirk 2007
(Susan Shirk served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for relations with China from 1997 to 2000, “An Interview with IGCC Director Susan Shirk”, http://igcc.ucsd.edu/publications/books/shirkinterview.php)
BJ: From the general public's perspective China looks like an economic powerhouse. Yet in your book you argue that from the inside China is actually a weak country. How can these two opposite perceptions be reconciled? Shirk: China has lots of economic and political internal problems. It has growing inequality. It has frequent protests in the countryside, and the cities, over a whole range of issues and the political system doesn't have a way for these grievances to be channeled. It has massive environmental problems. The public health system and the educational system are greatly underfunded. To the extent that these problems translate into social unrest they become political problems, raising questions of poor leadership. The leaders' domestic predicament could drive them into risk taking vis-à-vis the issues of Taiwan and Japan.
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