Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Bravo Lab China da

Hu Reform: Will Pass

Currency reform will pass

AlJazeera.net 10. (“US lashes out at China over Yuan.” JUNE 11, 2010. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/06/2010610195112993956.html) LRH.
The US has renewed call on China to revalue its currency, the yuan, saying its refusal to do so is impeding global economic reforms and hurting domestic demand in the world's most populous country. The call was made by Timothy Geithner, the US treasury secretary, as China posted unexpectedly strong exports, and a $19.5bn trade surplus in May, according to data released on Thursday. "The distortions caused by China's exchange rate spread far beyond China's borders and are an impediment to the global rebalancing we need," Geithner told a congressional hearing on the  US-China economic relationship on Thursday. "Reform of China's exchange rate is critically important to the United States and to the global economy," he said. Congress fury Both Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee warned Geithner that Congress' patience was wearing thin. One critic said if China does not move soon to allow its currency to rise in value against the dollar, Congress is likely to pass legislation that would impose tough trade sanctions on China.
The currency reform bill will pass: the US will force China to pass it

Talley 10. (Ian, writer for the Dow Jones Newswires. “Schumer: Senate To Move Soon On Bill To Push China On Currency Reform.” Wall Street Journal. June 10, 2010. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100610-709252.html) LRH.
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) said Thursday that the Senate would act "soon" on a bill that seeks to force China and other countries to reform their currencies.

In a hearing on U.S. trade relations with China, Schumer told Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner the Senate would move forward on the bipartisan bill that outlines punative measures against China---and other countries--if they don't allow their currency to adjust in line with market forces.

Lawmakers, responding to outcries from constituents and U.S. companies that are disadvantaged by Beijing's decision to keep its currency artificially low, criticized Geithner at the hearing for what they perceive as a lack of aggressive action by the Obama administration.

Geithner has expressed confidence that Chinese officials will resume appreciation of the yuan halted in mid-2008 during the worsening global financial crisis, while stressing that it is their decision to make. However, the recent flare-up of troubles in the euro zone has raised the prospect of further delays in removing the currency peg.
Currency reform will pass: US- Chinese relations have been improving, which will allow Washington to exert more influence over Beijing

Hon 10. (Chua Chin, US Bureau Chief. “No big news is good news for Sino-US ties; 
Agreements modest at latest dialogue but the atmosphere is positive.” The Straits Times (Singapore)

May 27, 2010.) LRH

Considering the rocky start to bilateral ties this year, however, and the simmering anxieties over Europe and the Korean peninsula, a 'no-drama' meeting between the two major powers is not a bad outcome at all.

'At the very least, the two countries have been able to sit down and talk calmly, and as equals,' said Professor Ding Xinghao, of the Shanghai Association of American Studies.

'That's what both sides have gained most from the talks, and the overall atmosphere is now a more positive one.'

A positive atmosphere had been far from certain, given long lists of grievances on both sides going into the strategic talks. Washington wants Beijing to move faster on its currency reforms and commit to tougher action against Iran and North Korea. Beijing, for its part, wants Washington to stop selling weapons to Taiwan, lift restrictions on technology exports, and recognise China as a market economy.

Presence Checks Nationalism

Strong US presence prevents the rise of an assertive Chinese nationalism
Sutter 2007

(Robert Sutter, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, “Does China Seek to Dominate Asia and Reduce US influence as a Regional Power?”, Carnegie Debates, April 20, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Sutter_paper.pdf)

2. Even if China’s leaders might not have a deliberate plan to dominate the region, will they most likely be driven to attempt to do so eventually? Chinese nationalism, China’s national security concerns, and longstanding opposition to hegemonism are among factors that could drive China’s leaders in this direction. However, as argued above, China’s leaders’ decision making will be influenced by the perceived costs and benefits of such a change in policy for Chinese interests. As argued above, persisting US power, if handled in ways that don’t fundamentally challenge China’s core interests regarding Taiwan and the Chinese political system, and pervasive hedging among Asian governments, are likely to sustain a regional environment that will make it very difficult for China to see strong, assertive or coercive efforts for regional dominance as in the best interests of China.

Strong US military presence in Asia prevents China’s leaders from taking aggressive stances to appeal to nationalists, the only risk of war is with decreased US presence
Sutter 2007

(Robert Sutter, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, “Does China Seek to Dominate Asia and Reduce US influence as a Regional Power?”, Carnegie Debates, April 20, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Sutter_paper.pdf)

3. What would be the most significant (and threatening) indicators of a Chinese quest for predominance in Asia, from the perspective of the United States and its allies in the region? These indicators would involve use of military force or coercive economic and political actions seeking to compel regional powers to follow Chinese wishes or dictates. As noted above, these Chinese actions seem likely not to be seen in Chinese interests so long as US power in the region remains strong and does not fundamentally confront core Chinese interests; and Asian powers remain determined to sustain independence and find the United States and others as useful sources in hedging against China’s rise. Chinese leaders may come under pressure because of deteriorating conditions at home and might choose to adopt tough and assertive positions in Asia as a means to shore up nationalistic support at home. A key indicator for US policy makers to watch seems to be US willingness and ability to sustain the costs associated with the twin pillars of US leadership in Asia—the US security presence in the region and the open US market to Asian imports. If US policy pulls back substantially in these areas, it will change regional dynamics in Asia and reduce US power and influence. This will erode the check US power currently exerts against coercive or assertive Chinese approaches to Asia.