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Nationalism DA Shell (1/2)
Central government reforms are currently maintaining stability in China, but further reforms are needed
Freeman 10 (Will, analyst at GaveKal Dragonomics, “The accuracy of China’s ‘mas incidents’ ” Financial Times (London), March 2, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ee6fa64-25b5-11df-9bd3-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=9511df10-6d6b-11da-a4df-0000779e2340.html?nclick_check=1) MKB
The central government is adapting to the challenge, to some extent. Beijing used to deny the existence of social unrest or blame it on foreign conspirators, but now accepts that social frictions stem from domestic problems will inevitably intensify. But since most complaints are against local officials or businesses, the central government argues that the chief problem is petty corruption stemming from bad eggs at the local level rather than systemic flaws that would undermine the legitimacy of the regime. Indeed, the sharp rise in petitions to Beijing about local abuses testifies to a widespread belief that the central government is more a potential solution to the problem, not its ultimate source. But this belief may be changing. Anecdotal evidence over the last five years suggests a rise in “anger-venting” mass incidents – large scale, often violent, riots that erupt from seemingly minor incidents and reflect general discontent rather than specific rights violations. In June 2008, over 10,000 rioters set fire to a police station in Guizhou province when police allegedly covered up a murder perpetrated by relatives of local government officials – the latest in a string of alleged misdemeanors. The party-state is in no danger of crumbling. But if the central government is serious about reducing growing social unrest, it must do three things: increase the accountability of local officials; break those officials’ grip on the courts; and improve the systems of public redress.
US military presence provides poltical cover to reformers in China while silencing hardline nationalists
Shirk 2007
(Susan Shirk is a professor in the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at UC San Diego and former Assistant Secretary of State for relations with China, China: Fragile Superpower, Oxford Press, pg. 263)
Maintain a strong U.S military presence Keeping U.S forces deployed in the Asia-pacific region to deter potential aggression is all the more necessary once we are aware of the domestic pressures that could drive China’s leaders to behave rashly. We want Chinese decision makers, when faced with a crisis to look out to the Pacific and see a U.S military with the will and capacity to defend Taiwan, our allies in Japan and south Korea, and our other Asian friends. Because restraining themselves may cost Chinese leaders domestic popularity, we need to balance that cost with the even greater cost they will pay if they act belligerently internationally and are defeated by our forces. To quote Henry Kissinger again, “the challenge to American foreign policy is how to deal with Chinese nationalism without inflaming it while standing firm when it turns to threats.” Maintaining our overwhelming military superiority also helps the doves in China argue that if the country tries to compete militarily with United States just as the Soviet Union did, then it will collapse from within just as the Soviet Union did.
Nationalism DA Shell (2/2)
China is on the brink of massive social unrest, action that alienates hardliners will collapse the regime
Garnaut 2010
(John, Sydney Morning Herald, “China insider sees revolution brewing”, February 27, http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-insider-sees-revolution-brewing-20100226-p92d.html)
BEIJING: China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ''revolutionary turmoil''. In contrast with the powerful, assertive and united China that is being projected to the outside world, Yu Jianrong said his prediction of looming internal disaster reflected on-the-ground surveys and also the views of Chinese government ministers. Deepening social fractures were caused by the Communist Party's obsession with preserving its monopoly on power through ''state violence'' and ''ideology'', rather than justice, Professor Yu said. Disaster could be averted only if ''interest groups'' - which he did not identify - were capable of making a rational compromise to subordinate themselves to the constitution, he said. Some lawyers, economists and religious and civil society leaders have expressed similar views but it is unusual for someone with Professor Yu's official standing to make such direct and detailed criticisms of core Communist Party policies. Professor Yu is known as an outspoken insider. As the director of social issues research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Rural Affairs he advises top leaders and conducts surveys on social unrest.
Collapse triggers a nuclear civil war and regional conflicts
Yee and Storey 2002
(Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University, and Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 2002 (The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality, RoutledgeCurzon, pg 5)
The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of political and economic collapse in the PRC, resulting in territorial fragmentation, civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries. Naturally, any or all of these scenarios would have a profoundly negative impact on regional stability. Today the Chinese leadership faces a raft of internal problems, including the increasing political demands of its citizens, a growing population, a shortage of natural resources and a deterioration in the natural environment caused by rapid industrialisation and pollution. These problems are putting a strain on the central government's ability to govern effectively. Political disintegration or a Chinese civil war might result in millions of Chinese refugees seeking asylum in neighbouring countries. Such an unprecedented exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of China's neighbours. A fragmented China could also result in another nightmare scenario - nuclear weapons falling into the hands of irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords.'2 From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.
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