Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Bravo Lab China da

PRC Econ Collapse Impact – List

China’s economy is key to maintaining stability in the region and checking Korea, piracy, terrorism, and proliferation.

Krawitz 10 (Howard M., “China’s trade opening and implications for regional stability” Strategic Forum, page 3) MKB 

A strong services sector, and the millions of jobs it will create, would not only support a real middle class but also slow growth in China’s chronically unemployed underclass, a worrisome source of destabilizing social pres- sure. China must place over 10 million new workers into the economy every year. It must also find jobs for an estimated 150 million unemployed migrants, a number expected to swell by at least 5 to 6 million a year. Again, domestic stability is the issue. Domestic stability in China benefits America. Comfortable, prosperous Chinese citizens are more likely to share concerns similar to those Americans have and be more willing to cooperate on the range of issues relating to such concerns. For example, China already shows increased interest in working with U.S. officials and private experts on environmental problems (for example, pollution, hazardous waste, and transportation), drug trafficking, medicine, and public health. These are now issues of real concern for Chinese citizens in more prosperous areas of the country. They are also issues that transcend borders and have the potential to draw China into the international arena as a nation with a stake in making cooperation work. Dialogue on matters of mutual interest promotes communication, increased cooperation, and, ultimately, trust. A wealthy, stable China can serve U.S. regional security interests. A China that risks tangible loss from aggressive and confrontational behavior should be less likely to favor precipitous action and conflict. It should be more likely to be interested in preserving regional peace and stability, more open to consulting with Pacific Rim neighbors, and more willing to cooperate on regional security issues, strategies, and disputes. Speaking from a vantage point of growing economic strength and military capability would give Beijing the respect, prestige, and diplomatic stature it craves, making it easier for China to see itself as a player whose opinion is given serious weight by peers. This could calm Chinese fears of being marginalized or contained, making it easier for China to find common cause with the United States, Japan, and others in the region in maintaining calm and promoting dialogue on Korean Peninsula security issues, combating international terrorism and piracy, and perhaps even becoming more involved in curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

AT: Econ Resilient

Economic collapse of China is possible

Conway 9 (Edmund, Economics Editor, “China’s economic miracle is a fragile one” The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/edmundconway/6546582/Chinas-economic-miracle-is-a-fragile-one.html) MKB 

China has grown to its current size, as do most "young" economies, by exporting cheap goods to richer countries. In its case, this has resulted in the biggest trade surplus in history. The proceeds of that surplus have to go somewhere but, rather than buying General Electric, the country's leaders have splurged it in the currency markets, doing whatever they can to keep their currency, the renminbi, down. Such a policy made sense when China had an economy that was relatively underdeveloped, and was trying to shield nascent exporters from volatility; but now, by keeping assets artificially cheap, it serves to exacerbate the bubble that is building up as a result of those low US interest rates. And while this approach worked when consumers here and in America would spend on Chinese exports, that is no longer assured. As if this weren't dangerous enough, the authorities have also taken to trying to pump up the economy further by channeling cheap credit to companies. There could hardly be a more reliable recipe for an asset bubble, and too many economists assume that the omn ipotent Chinese leaders know better. In reality, this bubble is being allowed to grow by a Communist party, which is well aware that, if economic growth drops below a certain level, their positions could become less secure; the authorities are also less in control than they would like to be.

China Key To Global Economy

China’s economy is key to stability and growth in the world economy.

People’s Daily Online 10 (“China, ‘stabilizer’ of the world economy” People’s Daily Online, http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/6885536.html) MKB 

China acts as the new engine of the world economy James Mirrlees, a professor from the University of Cambridge, said that when we look at the world economy, it would be of no significance without covering China, as China has become one of the world's most dynamic economies. The impact of the growing Chinese economy on the change in the world economy is likely to last for another 2 decades. This is also a universal view towards China held by many international institutions and overseas economists. Some experts hold that the rapid expansion of China’s demand over the past several years was clearly displayed in the international raw material and building machinery markets. China is now conducting urbanization construction at the pace of building 2 Bostons in 1 year. China's sufficient and cheap labor force has increased global potential for economic development and curbed inflation worldwide. In addition, China's foreign exchange reserve has become an important power to support the U.S. bond market and maintain the operation of the U.S. economy in which the savings rate is close to zero. China imports more and more products and technology while exporting a huge amount of products around the world. Many developing countries have benefited from cooperation with China. “China's rise has not only created an impact on the global economy, but has also displayed a brand new economic growth mode and an economic interaction mode between China and other countries," said Li Daokui, director of Tsinghua University's Center for China in the World Economy. According to Long Yongtu, secretary-general of the Boao Forum for Asia, the importance of China's economy has not only changed the nature of the global economy and many countries' stances toward the global economy, but has also greatly affected many people's viewpoints about market economy. China is a stabilizer in the world economy President of the World Bank Robert Zoellick once said that China was becoming a steady force in the world economy. Under the circumstances of the international financial crisis, the Chinese government timely launched a package plan to expand its domestic demand and to maintain a steady and rapid growth of its national economy, successively implemented many industrial policies including the 10 main plans for China's industrial revival, further strengthened its policies for improving people’s livelihoods, actively coped with the impact of international financial crisis, and is driving the world economy to recovery. "If we suppose that China's GDP accounts for about 7 percent of the world's total GDP, China's growth rate of 8.7 percent in 2009 could drive the world's economy to increase by 0.6 percentage points. The world economic growth rate was -1.4 percent in 2009, and if China's economic growth rate was 0 in the same year, the world economic growth rate would be -1.96 percent. Therefore, China's economic growth contributed about 29 percent to the world's economic growth rate in 2009. In other words, China's economic growth slowed the rate of decline of the world economy by about 30 percent in 2009." Professor Sun said after analysis, "China's economy has rapidly recovered and it is expected to continue improving sustainability. This has led to the increase of China's bulk commodity import volume and the steady growth of China's service import volume, created external demand for relevant economic entities, and promoted the steadiness and recovery of their economy." Barclays Capital vice president John Varley thinks that as one of the main global fiscal stimulus policies, China's 4 billion yuan economic stimulus package created more market opportunities and development space for China's trade and investment partners. China not only achieved its economic growth in spite of last year's global recession but also embodied how to cope with the financial crisis. Furthermore, it helped many other countries and regions cope with the crisis demonstrating its responsibility as a big country.　　 China's abundant foreign exchange reserve brought new hope for international banks and enterprises with fluid insufficiency. The Renminbi exchange rate's basic stability on a level of reasonable balance also contributed to avoiding the upheaval of the international financial and monetary market. "China's economic growth guaranteed the global energy demand to some extent. The prices of the resource products did not collapsed but steadily rose." said Li Daokui. In the second half of 2009, the growth in consumption owed significant thanks to powerful export response. In order to fuel its economy, China's power distribution on the "3 carriages," investment, consumption and export, became more rational making it better for China and the world economy to maintain strong growth this year. China leads the world in economic recovery.