Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

 

• During and immediately following a climate hazard. 

An increasing number of mechanisms use seasonal 

monitoring of climate and agro-climatic information 

to detect a shock. This analysis is linked to a forecast 

of likely impacts, and used to create a trigger to 

release finance for early action and early response. The 

action may be triggered and implemented after shocks 

such as rainfall deficits or changes in temperature 

have already occurred, but before they have unfolded 

into fully fledged disasters. This approach entails 

often unclear overlaps between early action and early 

response, especially in the case of slow-onset events 

such as droughts, where windows for both are longer. 

Mechanisms such as ARC’s drought risk pooling 

facility and the HSNP are examples of this.