Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

Box 3    Levels of automation in decision-making

Red Cross/Red Crescent FbF projects remove 

as much real-time decision-making as possible 

through Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), 

or Early Action Protocols (EAPs) as they are now 

known. These are developed well in advance with 

decisions already made about triggers, actions 

and targeting. Experts from national hydro-met 

offices, disaster risk management authorities and 

international scientific institutions are involved 

in the definition of the forecast threshold used as 

a trigger. Upon submission of the EAP/SOP for 

funding, the trigger is reviewed by expert bodies 

to establish whether it qualifies for funding. 

However, once the forecasts indicated in the 

EAP reach the defined threshold, no more expert 

judgment is used and the funding decision is taken 

automatically. The use of pre-agreed automated 

plans is a substantial change from the disaster-

specific decision-making processes that typically 

characterise humanitarian operations within the 

Red Cross/Red Crescent movement. 

FAO uses a combined approach in its Early 

Warning–Early Action activities. This means 

cross-checking forecast triggers with human 

judgement to validate triggers based on the 

situation on the ground, to understand what 

is realistic in a given context and to assess the 

quality and reliability of the system. The approach 

includes consultation with national and regional 

experts and sub-national FAO offices to build a 

common understanding of the situation before 

implementing activities linked to a forecast. 

At the other end of the scale, the protocols 

used by the Start Network determine how expert 

opinion will be used in response to a forecast – 

there is no automation. The Start Network uses 

information from international forecasting centres, 

real-time monitoring by its members, independent 

secondary data analysis and inputs from a technical 

advisory group to translate an alert into a funded 

action plan in less than 72 hours. Based on this 

information, a context-specific decision is taken 

about whether to trigger an action, what projects 

to fund and the amount of funding to disburse. 

WFP has tested both automatically triggered 

and non-automated actions through the forecast-

based finance window of FoodSECuRE and 

its El Niño defensive procurement initiative. 

FoodSECuRE uses predefined climate forecast 

triggers to release funding from a central pool to 

implement contingency plans. During the 2014–

2016 El Niños, WFP analysed the impacts of El 

Niño events on countries where the organisation 

purchased food and provided assistance, and 

used this information as part of its forward 

procurement process to reduce the risks of price 

increases in the supply chain.

---