Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

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3  Timing and planning 

actions

At the centre of FbA initiatives are efforts to provide 

earlier support to at-risk communities. While 

practitioners agree on the importance of early action, 

there is a wide interpretation of what this means and 

when it can occur. Three broad approaches are used:

 

• Before a hazard occurs. Practitioners including the Red 

Cross and WFP use forecasts of climate hazards linked 

to in-depth analysis of the impacts of these hazards to 

trigger action before and during the onset of climate 

or weather hazards. This means that action can be 

triggered days, weeks or months before the hazard 

occurs. For example, WFP triggered funding for an 

anticipatory response in September 2015 based on a 

forecast of high drought risk due to El Niño conditions 

during the main October to February agricultural 

season in Zimbabwe. The main humanitarian impacts 

of this drought were felt from mid-2016 to early 2017.