Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

2.1.3   Spatial scale of operation

The scales at which forecast information is assessed 

range from districts to counties/provinces and the 

national level. Actions need to target specific places and 

people that are vulnerable to climate extremes. This can 

present problems for the application of climate forecasts, 

particularly seasonal ones, as these forecasts tend to be 

made at a coarse scale with limited information for very 

local decision-making.

6

 The type of forecast information 

required depends on the hazard; while coarse resolution 

forecasts may be suitable for droughts or heatwaves, 

which are spatially extensive, forecasting flash floods 

requires very high-resolution modelling. There is a 

clear role for national meteorological and hydrological 

services in providing such detailed information.

6   The resolution of numerical forecast models remains relatively coarse (at best ~40km grid cell). The most commonly used IRI multi-model 

processed product is available on a 1-degree grid (~111km at the Equator), while some of the consensus products (e.g. from regional climate 

outlook forums) provide only very broad regional distinctions. Tools are available to statistically downscale these forecasts (e.g. the Fact-Fit tool), 

although these are not typically used in the systems we surveyed. For that reason, some smaller-scale systems use local hazard risk forecasts from 

bespoke systems.