Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

2.1   Characteristics of hazard information 

Forecast information comes in many forms, from raw 

data to qualitative statements such as bulletins from 

national meteorological services.

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 FbA mechanisms 

typically require quantitative information to define 

objective triggers for decision-making. FbA mechanisms 

must consider the hazards that need to be forecast and the 

forecast data required (or monitoring data in some cases, 

for slow-onset events), the source of that information, 

whether the spatial/temporal scales and lead-times and the 

forecasted variable meet their requirements, whether the 

reliability of the forecasts (known as ‘forecasting skill’)

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 is 

well established and whether deterministic or probabilistic 

forecasts are required. The Red Cross/Red Crescent 

Forecast-based Financing (FbF) manual provides guidance 

on this process.

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