Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

2.1.1   Hazard forecasts and monitoring data

Most of the FbA mechanisms reviewed in this report 

focus on the hazards posed by extreme weather and 

climate, and so incorporate forecasts of extreme 

weather and climate variables (such as precipitation 

and temperature), as well as river levels for flooding. 

For drought, many also use real-time monitoring of soil 

moisture and vegetation conditions from satellites, and 

assess food security status using in situ reports.

Around half the systems reviewed in this research 

use probabilistic forecasts (including all the Red 

Cross pilot systems, the World Food Programme 

(WFP)’s FoodSECuRE programme and the Inter-

Agency Standing Committee (IASC) El Niño Standard 

Operating Procedures). Several mechanisms use real-time 

monitoring data rather than forecasts, which can provide 

advance warning of socio-economic and humanitarian 

impacts of drought. These include social protection 

systems (the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) 

in Kenya and the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and 

Protection (LEAP) project developed by the government 

and WFP in Ethiopia); insurance-based systems such 

as African Risk Capacity (ARC) and the Extreme El 

Niño Insurance for Climate Change Prevention and 

Adaptation in Peru (EENIP); and the Start Drought 

Financing Facility. For slowly evolving drought hazards, 

real-time monitoring of impact precursors is clearly 

favoured over forecast information. A few systems 

involve a hybrid of both real-time monitoring and 

forecast information, including the USAID Food for 

Peace’s use of the Famine Early Warning System Network 

(FEWS NET) Food Assistance Outlook Brief, the Food 

and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Early Warning-

Early Action system and the Start Fund’s Anticipation 

Window.