Development finance assessment

Covid-19
2017
2018
2019(e)
2020(p)
2024(p)
2023(p)
2022(p)
2021(p)
Sources: Author’s calculations based on IMF, OECD, Ministry of Finance of Uzbekistan and World Bank data. 
Note:
Estimates and projections account for the impact of COVID-19 as per the latest available IMF data in May 2020. 
See Annex 2 for the details on the hypotheses for estimates and projections from 2019 onwards.
2013 (Figure 5). Authorities can more easily allocate public finance flows to achieve their 
intended development outcomes than private finance flows, whose allocation and use can 
only be influenced indirectly by authorities. Therefore, a critical aspect of any INFF involves 
maximizing the developmental impact of public spending through increasing its efficiency 
and SDG alignment. 
The 2019 strong increase of private domestic investment
18
was reversed in 2020 due 
to the impact of the covid-19 crisis. Based on author’s calculations using IMF projections 
of gross fixed capital formation for 2020-2025, private domestic investment is projected 
to increase in relative size. However, the financing from private domestic investment likely 
overestimates the real contribution of domestic commercial investment in the country 
because state-owned enterprises (SOEs) represent about 40 percent of Uzbekistan’s GDP
19
. 
There is no aggregate data available that would allow easily singling out the contribution of 
SOEs to development finance and separate them from commercial investors. 
The direct implication of this significant government participation in the economy is that 
the GoU may exert significant influence over the use of a significant share of its available 
total development finance (the sum of government spending and SOE controlled private 
investments). This raises the important issue of transparency regarding how GoU manages 
and monitors its SOEs vis-à-vis their contribution to sustainable development objectives.
A critical finding from this DFA is the steady rise of remittances as the third largest 
development finance flow in Uzbekistan. They are projected to remain larger than FDI, 
18
Proxied here by gross fixed capital formation by the private sector.
19
SOE investments are included within this private investment data, proxied by Gross fixed capital formation by the 
private sector.

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DIMENSION 1: 
ASSESSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE FLOWS
external debt and ODA combined. This points to the critical role remittances could play 
in financing the COVID-19 recovery, and an approach to maximizing their development 
impact.