Development finance assessment

Aggregate development finance
In 2018, the total amount of development finance flows to Uzbekistan amounted to USD 
37.4 billion in 2018
20
, equal to 74 percent of GDP (see Annex 1). Cautious estimates for 2019 
point to a significant increase of total development finance to 94 percent of GDP, driven 
by international private inflows (FDI and remittances) and an uptake of domestic private 
investment (Figure 6). However, the COVID-19 crisis is projected to temporarily reverse this 
positive trend. Based on IMF data and the author’s calculations, this DFA projects development 
finance flows to decrease to 74 percent of GDP in 2020, and remain at around 77 percent of 
GDP for the medium-term.
Figure 6 Outlook for different categories of development finance, Uzbekistan
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017
2018
2019 (e)
2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022 (p)
2023 (p)
2024 (p)
2025 (p)
%
G
D
P
Total Development Finance
Domestic public
Domestic private
International public
International private
Sources: Author’s calculations based on IMF, MoF, OECD and WB.
Note:
See methodological Annex for details on the composition of the aggregate financial flows, sources, estimates 
and projections. Estimates and projections account for the impact of COVID-19 as per the latest available IMF data 
in May 2020.
The composition of available development finance in Uzbekistan has witnessed significant 
changes since 2017 (Figure 7). The share of international public finance, mostly ODA and 
international public debt, increased significantly following the onset of major economic 
reforms and foreign policy shift. The economic performance of Russia influences remittances 
significantly. FDI inflows have also been erratic and below expectations, though trends prior 
to the COVID-19 suggested that foreign investment had begun to increase.
20
Roughly equivalent to UZS 300,000 billion.

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DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Domestic financial flows, both public and private, dominate the total available development 
finance in Uzbekistan. Together they represented over three quarters of total development 
finance over the period of 2017-2020 
This DFA reveals a growth trend of development finance flows at par with the onset of 
the country’s extensive reform agenda. The COVID-19 pandemic put an abrupt halt to this 
trend, as it significantly affected private financial flows which underpinned this recent growth 
in available development finance:
„
Prudent projections of total 
development finance flows for 2020 
point to a year-on-year absolute decline 
of 17 percent in 2020, equivalent to 
USD 9.3 billion. 
„
The decline in remittances, FDI and 
portfolio inflows account for 62 percent 
of this decline. Efforts to attract foreign 
investment – through PPPs and the 
imminent launch of an ambitious SOE 
reform and privatization strategy – will 
be disrupted by the highly uncertain 
economic condition. Remittances suffer 
from the global economic slowdown 
and lockdown.
„
Tax revenues are projected to fall by 
2.5 percentage points of GDP. About 
two-thirds of tax revenue losses 
are estimated to be from the direct 
Domestic public
40%
Domestic private
33%
International
public
9%
International
private
18%
Figure 8 Composition of Development 
Finance Flows (2017-2020), Uzbekistan 
Sources: Author’s calculations based on IMF, MoF, OECD and WB.
Figure 7 Contribution to the evolution of development finance
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2017
2018
2019 (e) 2020 (p) 2021 (p) 2022 (p) 2023 (p) 2024 (p) 2025 (p)
P
e
rcent
change
Domestic public
Domestic private
International public
International private
Sources: Author’s calculations based on IMF, MoF, OECD and WB.
Note:
Estimates and projections account for the impact of COVID-19 as per the latest available IMF data in May 2020.

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